Lol, does the red pill involve buying a Powerball ticket... because that sounds like a better investment to me. You're gambling and you're nuts @Rams Fan
All trading is gambling in my view. But I know that what you mean by gambling is different from how I would define the term. Let me ask you though: Why do you think I'm gambling? Tesla is down 32 points since I started the thread. Even just a small 100 share short would be up $3200 since the initial post. So, what makes you say that I'm gambling? A secondary question would be this: Are you familiar with the Matrix film franchise? Red pill vs blue pill is a reference to The Matrix.
Joking aside for the moment... You bring up an interesting point here. My response is there's a bigger difference between taking a gamble and taking a calculated risk than you may think. You're gambling mostly because you specify a price and time frame... that's not the same as offering negative outlook. In other words, it doesn't matter much that TSLA is down since the thread was started, because it's no where near $5 nor have 12-18 months elapsed. This is why I linked to a comparable option quote before. Now, if the title and first post on this thread were "I'm bearish on TSLA", I'd say you might be correct. But, I don't think the thread would have garnered as much interest from the general population. What was your goal? Of course I've seen the movie... and I certainly consider myself a "free thinker". So, I'm open to hearing bearish arguments regarding TSLA. That said, I'd caution against specifying prices and dates without doing a lot more research. And now back to the fun...
I would say your "calculated risk" is no less gambling than the degenerate day trader clicking away in revenge trying to get it all back with no rhyme nor reason and certainly no edge. Both are gambling. What your calculated risk points to is that there are skilled players who have edge, know the probabilities and have accepted the risk required to place the bet, and there are degenerate know nothings with a lottery mentality (and many gradations between the two). It may seem like semantics, but it isn't. I attribute much of my success in trading to the fact that I have a probabilistic mind set and I know that there is an element of luck involved in every trade, and that the outcome of every trade I make is independent of all the other trades I have or will make. I wasn't merely offering a negative outlook though. I am short Tesla. I have been short Tesla since early 2021. I have added to my short position several times since starting the seed almost 12 months ago. When it comes to the market, there are two elements: Time and price. Trading is about making a profit from price changes over time. I wouldn't place a trade if 1) I didn't have some idea where price was going, as that would allow me to size the position according to the risk and the expected reward. I wouldn't place a trade if 2) I didn't have some idea how long I expected the trade to last. Now, I may be wrong on both. Perhaps Tesla never gets to $5 and instead it bottomed today. Maybe it does get to $5, but it takes 36 months instead of 12 to 18. Or maybe it gets there in 6 months. Who knows? That is why trading, no matter what one's edge or how much research went into a thesis is always gambling: We are placing bets on uncertain outcomes. If that were the thread title you wouldn't have said anything, and you and I would not have had this opportunity to become friends. To be fair, you really don't know what I know or on what I'm basing this long-term thesis. I'll leave you with this great chart. The green dots represent the approximately 10 or so times over the past five years that Tesla insiders bought Tesla shares. The red dots represent all the hundreds of times Tesla insiders did what? TSLA's Insider Trades | insiderviz
Agreed, in some sense our viewpoints aren't especially different. I just tend to lean on quantitative tools quite a bit, but there's certainly no substitute for high quality qualitative analysis. Indeed, the latter begets the former IMHO. Anyway, you didn't trade a specific option with me so I won't hold you to anything And, yes... if you framed the issue in a less exaggerated form there may have been less to talk about! Good job & good luck w/ the trade you put on.
I'm short the shares outright. I am a stock trader. I'll "dabble" in futures when a special situation arises, e.g. long crude into the war, short crude in the Spring, and I'll also day trade futures a little bit. If Tesla does get into the low double digits I'd be likely to take a long position using LEAPS. I will trade options from time to time, but usually as a day trade or maybe a one to two day hold like @TrailerParkTed seems to do from the looks of his journal. As I said to our young friend @hilmy83 you can feel free to mark me short from the price in the initial post of this thread. However, I've posted pretty much this same view of Tesla on this forum back in April, I believe. For the longest time, I was actually a Tesla bull. I owned shares for a few years continuously and added several times as it was breaking to new highs. I never considered shorting it until it was time to short it. I was long during the first split, short during the second split.
The last I've been able to find is that she has an estimated cost basis of $108.39. I am trying to find out if that includes the $88 Million, she purchased since October. Good luck with your Tesla long.
I don't think we've hit a bottom just yet. The bear market has been too orderly. No real panic just a big deflating. Feels too easy if TSLA was to go back to ATH from here. Next Jan earnings should be a mover.