I've thought some about that. What if the Republicans won, and McCain died before the end of his term.... I don't think Palin nor anyone needs to be well versed in many "presidential" areas. Presidents always have lots of advisers to give them input on every issue. What's needed for a good president is someone who will weight the input then do what's good for America and our people. However "well qualified" anyone believes Bush to have been, he's made MAJOR self-serving, greedy, "bad for America" decisions. I don't see how we could have done worse.... though I'm confident Kerry would have failed the country in his own but different way.
My call off the cuff is that earnings season plus elections = one ugly November. Don't care who wins the election. Most likely bad earnings reports and uncertainty about whomever is president-elect might make for a panicky market. I'd like to be optimistic but I just don't feel like blind optimism is the way to play the market. Also FWIW, according to the Trader's Almanac the market performs poorly in the first two years or so of a new president's first term. Statistically, the bottom should be somewhere around the second year, so 2010? I take that with a grain of salt but we'll see if that plays out. All I know is this is a trader's market, anyone who invests these days should be locked up IMO
A joint event is not a debate. The official debates are: 9/26 Oxford Mississippi Presidential debate 10/02 VP Debate in St Louis Missouri 10/07 Nashville Second presidential debate 10/15 Hampstead NY third presidential debate.
polls show that people got briefly excited about a beautiful woman. this effect will be gone in a couple of weeks. on the other hand, obama has more cash and we know that $$ talks. mccain has no chance.
You underestimate the impact of "small town values" "compelling life stories" and other crap that decides the elections more than issues. This excitement over Sarah Palin makes me want to puke. There is a rush to get glasses that are styled like hers (for women obviously). Obama is perceived as inexperienced and somewhat elitist (that is odd for someone that grew up without a father). Jeremiah Wright, Clinging to religion and other comments sealed his fate. Plus some women would vote for a woman simply because she is a woman. If you want to experience irrational behavior go back to democriatic New Hampshire primary. Hillary was projected to lose and lose badly but her "tear" and a guy holding a sign "iron my shirt" at her rally plus perceived schadenfreude from the media activated "you go girl" compassion. Some think that media is unfairly attacking palin. Bear in mind, you don't need to brainwash a lot of people to achieve desired impact. Just as it was misguided to believe that there was no difference between Bush and Gore enough people voted for Nader in a critical state that it cost Gore the election.
Calin is a tough guy's kind of woman, she can shoot you between the eyes if you stand still enough. All kidding a side, she has the toughness that can makes a democrat flush, yet feminine enough to be wholesome woman. I'd say it's a double doses for Obama and a sure winner for McCain.