Trying to fix counter-trend entries

Discussion in 'Strategy Development' started by spdracer22, Mar 31, 2009.

  1. My strategy has a problem of buying on a downtrend and selling on an uptrend. It generally does a good job of picking the reversal points, but on a given move, half of my position (based on entry price) may be losing, and the other half winning. So, basically, I am entering/exiting too early, and missing half of the move. Where I have gotten lucky is that by doing this, it changes the average price of my position, which generally lessens some of the losses.

    I've been considering Keltner/Bollinger Bands, but it seems like when they indicate an entry/exit point is later than my current system does. So, if I wait until, say, I get a breakout from the Keltner channel, I'm past the point where my current strategy would indicate a trade. I could tighten up the channel, but then I'm subject to higher possibility of whipshaw trades.

    I am just looking for some direction of where to go now; basically looking for ways to determine the current trend.
  2. nkhoi

    nkhoi Moderator

    use 15m open range, above = long, below = short, in middle = chop.
  3. Do you have a link for a description of Open Range? All I seem to be able to find are links to "free ebooks".
  4. Just bracket the high and low of the 15 min. range from the open, that's all. Some ppl. look at 30 min, and some 60 min. range.
  5. nkhoi

    nkhoi Moderator

    search for "10 o'clock bull open range"
  6. Thanks for the help, guys. I'm getting closer!