Monitor Realized E(x) vs Implied E(x) with MFE / MAE What if we enter a trade and for the next 30s The market has moved +5 ticks and -10 ticks around our entry Does it means it's a bad trade ? MAE is twice the MFE.
If you’re willing to accept a small loss, right from the start, then the quality of your trade increases. You’re not throwing bad money away on suboptimal setups as you’re punished for your bad actions. You’re by consequent learning how to trade effectively. Worst outcome is to lose a lot on a bad trade and to win little on a good one. Learn to take small losses Learn to give your profits room Learn what conditions are favorable
Location, Location, Location Let’s say you plan to risk 2 to make 4 points But you miss your initial entry and chase You’re 1 point late which means … Now you risk 3 to make 3. You’ve turned a 2R trade into a 1R In trading, 1 point saved is 2 points earned.
Context At the EOD you can clearly see what was the context for the day. How does the daily bar looks ? Small or Big bar ? Doji, Bull or Bear bar ? If we buy high and sell low into a doji bar then we might revisit our decision making process. I believe the overnight session gives clues about the coming RTH session (Outside of news events). What’s the range ? Upside vs Downside (Open wise) ? The high and low relative to prior day ? EDGE The market provides edge. If you trade a tough market then you’ll have a hard time making money. No matter what your backtest tells you. The strategy exploits an edge but it’s not the underlying itself. Only a derivative of the market. Reading the tape is all about getting a feel for our expectancy. What’s the bias ? If a move is retraced by 100% then the bias is ZERO. If a move is only retraced by 20% then the bias is 80%. What’s the volatility ? Volatility increases risk ans reward by the same token but the bias can make it one sided or asymmetric. What are you trying to capture ? If you chase unicorns around doji bars then you’re at the wrong place at the wrong time. Look what might triggers green / red dildos on your chart + What it looks like in realtime. Put the odds in your favor. Don’t buy this or that because you get a signal… You want the propensity and the reward to risk to backup your signals. A good trade is context dependent. You need the market behind you (The sum of all the parts).