If you are in the stockmarket, you have to take the pain with the gain. All I am saying is the stockmarket has been going up and down. Has been since, it started. If you cannot stand the time it goes down then, stay out! Nobody is being forced to stay in. Then, you still want the gains? You cannot have it both ways! The US President does not dictate monetary policy which the Federal Reserve does. What is happening is the stockmarket is reacting to the threat of a trade war. Nothing more, nothing less. It could just as easily go back up even higher if trade deals get signed. At some point, trade deals will get signed. Only question is when?
I agree there is bound to be ups and downs and pain and gain. I am a trader, so please take it I am convinced that just one of the wrong ways to make money is to put it into stocks and forget them. Another (even more) wrong way is to buy a load of stocks and then sell them when the market is really badly down, then buy them back when its really strongly up. Stuff happens and its how you deal with it that counts.
Smallfil, Can't see your posts when logged in so I assume I have you blocked from a previous incarnation. I think everyone here at ET is aware that markets go up and down, but thanks for that enlightenment. It is called EliteTrader, so if you have a decent trading system you shouldn't be taking heat outside your risk parameters anyway. The heading of this thread and the thread that you taken umbrage with is titled,"Trump's trade dares have vaporized the Dow's gain for 2018". You then explain that,"What is happening is the stockmarket is reacting to the threat of a trade war". No shit Sherlock. Trump mightn't control Interest Rate policy but he has cut income tax rates and at this point in time is also most likely stimulating inflation via this tariff battle. The conclusion of this "trade war" remains to be seen. As a trader it's great for volatility, maybe not so great if you are an investor.
only when you set yourself free from the media fed stories like above, can you see the truth of the market.
I think the truth of the market is that Trump has made bearish noises and the market has gone down. But please share your analysis if different.
the market is shaking recently, simply because retail sentiment has changed this year... and the market needs a cleansing. I have a thread called 'trading is easy', where I wrote my thoughts about the market this year. the new highs in QQQ and IWM already confirmed that both the inflation story and the trade war story are bogus, used to shake shares off the weak hands. at the current P/E, and the forward earning, SP should get to 3300 in a year, 3000 by the end of year.... you don't hear anyone talking about this... because these guys are shaking the tree, and quietly accumulating.
You agree that the tree is being shaken, yet you don't think Trump is the lead shaker? I am pretty sure he is only interested in talking about trade wars because it pleases his voter support, but nothing will come of it in the end, and the Dow will resume its upward trajectory. So he and his cohort get a double win. But I will also win, as I am in cash as far as the US stock market is concerned.
I used the term 'shaking' in the sense of trading - where the pros trying to shake retail by over hyping the effect of the trade war, thru violent market actions, and thru media. Trump's main interest is to get fair trade... it should make his constituents happy as that was his campaign promise.
Oh, fair trade deals will come out of it. President Trump is not stupid to talk about tariffs and back down. He knows what he is doing. Look at what is happening to Chinese stocks. If you think this is merely, posturing, you apparently, have no clue! This is real but, the Chinese President Xi Jinping would have to decide how much damage to the Chinese economy he wants to risk rather than merely, sign fair trade deals now. Those who sign fair trade deals first would benefit. Those hard headed might find their products are not selling as much because other suppliers have replaced them! Most products nowadays are manufactured in multiple countries so that, getting the same product for the same quality at less prices is possible. Tariffs will make Chinese products more expensive relative to their competitors. That is just common sense. I buy made in USA products where available. If not, I would not buy products from countries we have a trade war with and I imagine most Americans will too! Those with fair trade deals with the US, I will give them priority!
Trumps trade war will be good for America but not for Americans. Most Americans will suffer for 15-20 years until domestic industry can add capacity.