Trump’s SALT Cap Fuels a Wealth Exodus from High-Tax States

Discussion in 'Wall St. News' started by dealmaker, Jan 15, 2020.

  1. dealmaker


    Trump’s SALT Cap Fuels a Wealth Exodus from High-Tax States
    Martin Z. Braun
    BloombergJanuary 15, 2020
    Trump’s SALT Cap Fuels a Wealth Exodus from High-Tax States
    (Bloomberg) -- Some of the hardest evidence yet indicates that the 2017 Republican tax law is pushing money and people from high-tax U.S. states like New York and New Jersey and into low-tax states including Florida.

    In 2018, low- and lower-tax states gained $32 billion more in adjusted gross income than higher tax states, according to a Bank of America Global Research analysis of income migration data. The net gain -- almost $2 billion more than in 2017 -- was nearly twice the average over the last 13 years. The Republican overhaul capped state and local deductions at $10,000, making it harder for people to shield as much income from taxes as they could before.

    At the same time, states like Florida and Texas, which don’t have an income tax, are seeing more and more people move there. New York, California, Connecticut and New Jersey -- the states that had the highest average SALT deductions, lost about 455,000 people between July 1, 2018 and July 1, 2019, compared with 408,500 the prior year, according to U.S. Census data. Most of the increase came from people leaving California.

    “The implication would be at the very least, people are sensitive to large changes in federal tax policy,” said Ian Rogow, a municipal strategist at Bank of America who analyzed the data.

    Almost half of income taxes paid to California, New York and New Jersey come from the wealthiest 1% of households. If they were to move in large enough numbers, those states could be in trouble. So far, however, the federal tax overhaul -- which broadened the tax base -- and steady economy growth has led to higher-tax state revenue overall. States collected $327.7 billion in income tax revenue in the first three quarters of 2019, about 6% more than the same period in 2018, according to the Census Bureau.

    To be sure, people move for a variety of reasons: jobs, housing costs and the weather among them. Despite having the third-highest personal income tax rate, Oregon was the second-most popular moving destination in the U.S., according to United Van Lines Annual Movers Study. The survey found that job changes and retirement were the two biggest reasons for leaving the northeast.

    Related: Florida, Trump’s New Home, Leads U.S. in the Migration of Money

    The Republicans’ 2017 tax law capped the SALT deduction as a way to help pay for $1.5 trillion in corporate and personal income tax cuts. Governors in Democratic-led states most affected by the new limit, including New York and New Jersey, accused Republicans of targeting them to pay for the cut. In October a federal judge ruled against New York, New Jersey, Connecticut and Maryland, which had sued to overturn the cap, arguing it was unconstitutional. The states are appealing.

    The SALT limit significantly raised the effective taxes for wealthy residents of blue states. In 2017, about 140,000 tax filers in Manhattan with adjusted gross income of $200,000 or more paid $21 billion in state and local income taxes, or $150,000 on average, according to IRS data. About 83,000 of these filers paid an average $25,000 in property taxes. In Westchester, home to the nation’s highest property taxes, the wealthiest residents paid about an average $65,000 in state and local income taxes and $28,000 in real estate taxes.

    In the fourth quarter of 2019, Westchester homeowners cut an average of 4.1% from their last asking price to sell their homes, according to a report last week, a sign that sellers have to slash prices to attract to buyers. The price cuts were the most for any three-month period since the end of 2014, according to a the report by appraiser Miller Samuel Inc. and brokerage Douglas Elliman Real Estate.

    New York Governor Andrew Cuomo who has called the SALT limits “politically diabolical,” has warned that capping the deduction encourages high-income New Yorkers to leave.

    “Tax the rich, tax the rich, tax the rich. We did. Now, God forbid the rich leave,” Cuomo said last year.

    --With assistance from Oshrat Carmiel.

    To contact the reporter on this story: Martin Z. Braun in New York at

    To contact the editors responsible for this story: Elizabeth Campbell at, Michael B. Marois, William Selway

    ©2020 Bloomberg L.P.
  2. dozu888


    brilliant move.. let the socialist states have a taste of what socialism is like.
  3. Saw this one coming down the pipeline about 10 years ago. The interesting event that may occur if things get more precarious for the nation's wealthy is to move out into international waters and have a limited tax liability. Probably NY will hit up the Seneca nation for money again and the Feds will tell them to back off. End of the Empire State has been written on the walls......

  4. smallfil


    Apparently, contrary to their lying lips, extreme liberals hate to pay taxes especially, if they are the ones paying it? Socialism 101, congratulations chumps, you have passed your first class. Socialism 102 is down the hall, to the right.
    MKTrader likes this.
  5. ET180


    No, this is bad. Those people leaving will vote the same way that ruined the states they are fleeing. They don't learn.
  6. dozu888


    we don't have data on that do we? you'd think those who flee socialism will not vote socialism :)
  7. R1234


    Never does governor Cuomo mention the need to lower the crushing (and ever rising) taxes. He just gripes about how the SALT provision is the root of all evils. Meanwhile, top of his current agenda is to make some aesthetic tweaks to the State flag.
  8. So the wealthy that are fleeing taxes are going to go to a state with lower taxes to keep more of their wealth and this is them bringing socialism??

    Don't drink and type...
    ges likes this.
  9. ajacobson


    Killing us here in Illinois
  10. gaussian


    No they go to states with lower taxes and vote the same socialist policies in from where they came from (ostensibly the very policies that made them leave in the first place). That is what he is saying. Again as I said above there are numerous examples of this happening. Denver, Texas, Oregon, and Washington are the big ones. He's specifically referring to limousine liberals.

    They'll vote against the second amendment but will leave when their community's armed security is disarmed. They'll vote higher taxes but leave when they can no longer write off enough for it to make sense. They'll vote environmental laws but leave when they can no longer be driven around in an H2 gas guzzler. They'll vote for unionization but leave (or move their company) when their workers unionize and strike. This is the problem.
    Last edited: Jan 15, 2020
    #10     Jan 15, 2020
    AKUMATOTENSHI likes this.