You recently said he had the best plan you've ever seen from a President. Most knew most of his plans were nuts. Hard to bridge that gap other than to assume you are a gullible kid unaware of how the world works.
The supply chains into Mexico and Canada are deep and will take more than a decade to move into the US. Autos are one of the largest employers in America... a lot of them are "Leopards won't eat my face" party voters.
Good analysis. That said, not everyone precisely agrees with your risk assessment: Asked about a forecast shared at the same conference by investment giant Blackstone(BX.N), chair and CEO Stephen Schwarzman that the U.S. had no chance of experiencing a recession in 2025, Solomon said: "The chance of recession in 2025 is small but it's not zero."(1)
SAME OLE SHIT EVERY DAY BUY THE SAME DUMB ASS. POSTER NEVER MENTIONS BIDEN DIPS - SORE FUCKING LOSER.
The 22% came from a House Ways and Means article. Google Trump tax cut 22 and it should be the first article. They don't need 5 trill. in cuts. That would be 100% of what they took in. They need about 1.08 trill. to make the cuts permanent. If they only cut 608 bill. they could make them permanent without the estate tax exemption. Watch the exchange rate for each country. If the dollar weakens the current account deficit will shrink. If the dollar strengthens it would indicate government intervention to prop up the local country economy. I don't think the tariffs are meant to raise much money...just shrink the current account deficit so the US economy doesn't continue to be drained by the trade imbalance.
Oh ok so House Republicans came out with that ... obviously. And not the non-partisan Congressional Budget Office. Any reason you didn't just post a link? Anyway another opinion I came across said tRump's full tax proposal would explode the debt $5 - $11 trillion. Prolly could google Committee for a Responsible Federal Government or some such. Tariffs are hey look a squirrel. Nothing more. Once he is done strutting his weak hand, he'll move on. Meanwhile the tax package will go forward and just like almost always, add to the debt. In modern times the exception was when Slick Willy was Prez. Remember him a D not an R. R's talk a good game off reining in the budget and long term debt, then do squat about it.
I'd be more worried if everyone agreed. I hope Schwarzman is right and I'm wrong. We should revisit this in a few months!!
Wonder what Schwarzman's "uncle" point would be for the indices to alter his no chance in 2025? Or what his chances are for an early 2026 recession. IOW bleeding over from second half of this year. eMini continues downward and yesterday's volume was the highest in over a year!
Anything's possible. Personally, I don't like taking short positions if it's not specifically to hedge. So happy just trying to safely capture a bit of the volatility risk premium.