Trump Up Over 13% in Betting Markets

Discussion in 'Politics' started by wildchild, Oct 15, 2024.

  1. RedDuke

    RedDuke

    If Elon puts another 30 mil into betting odds, Trump would be +40 :sneaky: Let's see how this will play out in 2 weeks.
     
    #21     Oct 21, 2024
  2. smallfil

    smallfil

    The final nail is yesterday, President Donald Trump serving fries at the drive in window at a McDonalds. Average Americans were thrilled to talk to President Donald Trump while, picking up their McDonalds orders. You should see the left wing hacks on MSNBC lose their heads over the videos of Trump at McDonalds. It drove them out of their minds. Hilarious!
     
    #22     Oct 21, 2024
    ids and wildchild like this.
  3. Mercor

    Mercor

    Be a good capitalist and take the other side of Musks bet and break him
     
    #23     Oct 21, 2024
  4. spy

    spy

    @Mercor has a point. Even if the "Musk market manipulation" conspiracy theory were true, Kamala & her superpacs have tons of money... they could just as easily try to sway markets back.

    The fact is bettors think her campaign is losing steam. Who could blame them? With tight polling, if there's a "silent majority" anywhere near the size of past elections, she'll be drubbed on election day.
     
    #24     Oct 21, 2024
  5. RedDuke

    RedDuke

    These betting markets mean absolutely nothing. Even polling means shit. Hillary had 85% odds on the morning of the election. Polling will predict popular vote, but this isn’t how we elect our president. There will be 2 outcomes of this election:

    1) Harris narrow win
    2) Harris landslide

    it is over for Trump barring some huge black swan against Kamala.
     
    #25     Oct 21, 2024
    Tuxan likes this.
  6. spy

    spy

    I guess we know how you're betting then. Nonetheless...

    "In the 11 presidential elections since 1980, the only race where the winning candidate had worse odds than the losing candidate was in 2016, where both the betting markets and conventional polling failed to predict a Trump win." (1)

    It's called an outlier, in Trump's favor btw. And...

    "Trump has a 53 percent chance of winning the Electoral College" (2)

    Don't forget this. So, if you wanna give me even money on Trump I'll take it all day.
     
    Last edited: Oct 21, 2024
    #26     Oct 21, 2024
  7. RedDuke

    RedDuke

    Non of it matters this year.

    We have a candidate who is supported by Bernie Sanders and Dick Cheney. Off all the impossible things even a year ago, this would make top of the list. Coalition is too broad.

    Hillary took rust belt as a given, hardly compaigning there. That is why she lost. Trump is a perfect definition of 1 trick pony and in 2 weeks this will be set in stone.
     
    #27     Oct 21, 2024
  8. ids

    ids

    Nuts.
     
    #28     Oct 21, 2024

  9. Betting markets had Hillary at 85,but electoral college polling only had her up 6 electoral college votes.Electoral college polling has Trump up 86 electoral college votes.

    upload_2024-10-22_2-0-48.png




    upload_2024-10-22_1-59-51.png



    RCP's electoral college map polling is 4-1 in predicting the electoral college winner.The only one they got wrong was 2016 and as mentioned they only had Clinton up by 6 electoral college votes,being up 86 electoral college votes is much different.Harris is doing worse in both state and national polling than Clinton,far worse.


    It is over for Harris, even some huge black swan wont save her.
     
    Last edited: Oct 21, 2024
    #29     Oct 21, 2024
  10. wildchild

    wildchild

    Didn't Dick Cheney lie to the American to start a war that cost trillions of dollars, killed a million people included 4,500 US soldiers.

    Then his daughter, a conspiracy nut, thought Saddam Hussein was behind 9/11.
     
    #30     Oct 21, 2024