I tend to agree with Mr Trump, as, reliable data shows that "households" have the largets holding in US equities. Ssssssshhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh The majority here do not deserve anything of real value, as they are mostly young ignorant upstarts who think they know everything, but actually know sweet fuk all You can spot them a mile away! J_S
Looks like percentage wise households had a larger lead over everyone else from 1992-2000. Using that as an indicator would have led you to go short in 92 and miss a huge bull market. We may or may not be in a bubble, but hindsight graphs like this are of limited predictive value in determining it.
Different times! Mr Trump is no fool, that is for sure. If you " want" the market to keep going up, you will of course back those who say it will - car salesmen are very good at telling people what they want to hear! Short term traders need not worry - long term traders need to thread with caution and take heed of cycles. It is not about being right or wrong - it is about risk and objectives. I agree 100% with Mr Trump, and he is also a very nice person J_S
Just to make sure I understand, you're using a graph of the past to predict future events but saying that contradictory evidence on said graph should be ignored because it was different times? You got the "different times" part right, that's why blindly interpolating the future from graphs in the financial world is generally a fools errand.
Can you quote where I said any of that? What I did say, is, that I agree with Mr Trump 100% in his take on the stock market being a bubble. I have my reasons as to why I agree, and, showed just one chart of what % holding the "households" have in the total US equity market - which is very high compared to the other groups. As with any analysis, you can not look at one chart in isolation - kinda silly, as you will not see the whole picture, if you can even see it at all! I really do not care if SP500 keeps going up, or falls like a brick, as I am a very short term trader, when I decide to risk some of my hard earned money. If I wanted to get a handle on the longer term outlook, then I would need to do a good bit of analysis, using software like trade navigator - but I have no interest and leave that to those who want to trade that way. It is all relative, but, I do agree 100% with Mr Trump, and, I would be very cautious opening long term buy and hold positions at this point in time, as, there is a very good chance that we could see a lot of selling in the very near future. Again, if you want an approximate Dow Cash level that this reversal will start at, that would require a good few hours work with trade navigator - which I have no intention of doing. J_S
Stock market been in a bubble long time, as soon as Obama spent like a madman which should have increased interest rates to manage some of the spending, market is forced to go up as only flight to quality reason to get into T-Bonds. But unlike the majority, I keep selling Indexes and hedging, end is next year I am thinking no matter who prez will be. I been short Financials since early July after handful of stabs and recently added to shorts, but fully expect to be stopped out eventually when Indexes top. I positioning myself for a depression and have sold off 15% of my real estate holdings, and as prices goes up, I will keep selling those and other entities as with last depression, cash was king and my Grandfather bought up city land blocks in Chicago in 30s.
You're wrong to short real estate, IMO. When something nasty in the Middle East or Europe happens (ie nuke or chem/bio), and it will... the worlds wealth will flee to our shores..... quality raw land will skyrocket. Stocks may collapse... but not quality land. ___________________________________________