The Beef is on the way. We can expect delivery by late Summer 2018. Because the delivery truck is still on the highway, Your Honor, we are requesting a continuation until September 1.
How about some measures of performance that account increases in our national debt as a measure of executive economic competence? GDP % growth less national debt growth % equals effective (underlying or organic) economic growth. And national debt as a % of GNP, where increases in this measure imply ineffective executive economic performance. Exceptions might be made in case of extreme disasters or wars. I have the sense that businesses are feeling more confortable in investing in new ventures and expanding their business due to a perceived friendly administration. This administration is headed by an experienced and sucessful businessman who knows that challenges that many new regulations have created. Trump’s promises to reduce regulations and taxes reduce the risk and cost of doing business. It is natural for businesses with extra cash and or borrowing capacity to want to expand in this business-friendly environment. This can create a positive feedback loop that creates a rising stock market, increased capital formation, business expansion, and more profits. As you mentioned earlier, this is part of the business cycle and will inevitably lead to inflation, Fed tightening, yield curve inversion, recession, and an collapsing stock market. The question is, where will the United States be financially, as measured by the previously mentioned performance indicators when this happens? If national debt as a % of GDP is lower than a comparable period in the economic cycle, an atta boy may be in order. If not, we may find ourselfs with limited stimulative capacity through borrowing at a time of unfavorable demographics. We only need to look at Japan as a possible “canary in the coal mine.”. Their peak real estate and Nikkei peak was in 1999 to 2001? I am for giving Trump a chance to see if we can get ahead of this looming debt monster chasing down our newer generations.
so once we remove all your caveats, you believe the market could go up or down from here but it will correct in the future. Thanks, maybe I should buy some 2020 puts. The fact that the market was perhaps pricing in Trump tax cuts never really entered your your mind. Do you think massive corporate tax cuts might influence profits, dividends and therefore forward looking P/E ratios? Did it occur to you that one of the reasons the companies wanted to dish out a lot of profits in bonuses to employees was to manage their projected earnings growth? Its been years since the markets seemed to care about govt deficits and even if they did as long as the FED controls the bond market, and keeps interest rates low isn't the market is being supported? Its seems to me the market anticipated the cuts. Now the rest of the money is piling because it has to and because they are seeing profits increasing for the forseeable future. Exogenous shocks could change things. The FED could change things. Things could change which changes things. If you think the market would react to Trump being shot by Melania... then you are tacitly acknowledging Trump matters to the market and Pence might not be a better choice.
Despite your confidence, your predictions are not credible. "Confidence, it's the food of the wise man, and the liquor of the fool." Vikram, The Office https://www.elitetrader.com/et/thre...fit-for-presidency.301670/page-9#post-4313573
https://www.cnn.com/2018/01/26/politics/donald-trump-rod-rosenstein-frustration/index.html http://www.nydailynews.com/news/pol...-smear-fbi-witnesses-report-article-1.3782875
He thought about firing him and then didn't Only a leftist could ramble on endlessly about a non event. Desperation has a death grip on the left. They have nothing.
All of this is some truly orwellian bullshit, for months the propagandists in the far left media have been telling us about how Trump supposedly colluded with russia, now that has all went away since they cant find a single piece of evidence to backup the claim, so now the story turns into, well Trump is still a criminal, because he debated firing someone who was investigating him for a crime he didnt commit. The fact of the matter is he could have pardoned anyone below him like Manafort, or Flynn, and none of their crimes relate to collusion, but supposedly its a crime for him to ask his advisors if he could fire someone who is investigating him when the previous FBI director assured him multiple times he wasnt even under investigation. If he wanted to end the investigation into flynn and manafort for unrelated crimes he could have pardoned them at will, but its obstruction of justice for him to contemplate firing a person who has been unable to find a single crime he committed....... Unless they can thread the needle where he was trying to end an investigation into himself for a crime he committed then they cant win. You cant say, yeah well he was totally innocent but he talked to lawyers about ways to end the investigation, Mueller wants to get him under oath cause he might have a case if Trump lies under oath, but unless they can put that together they have nothing. 3 more years dems have fun, i know i have been having for the last year in the stock market. Its been like the frigging tech bubble under Trump.