There never was gonna be a trade deal... In the chinese culture, pride is retardedly important and what the US wanted was in effect to kill the communists party's power, he will never agree to their demand and will face what ever comes with it. US wants to dramatically reduce the trade deficit, which the chinese can't and wont do cause they do not float RMB and need every precious USD they can get their hands on. Two is State Owned Enterprise money allocation which is the pillar of the communist looting their country blind, not gonna happen... The only thing they will agree on and are doing regardless of tariffs cause they have no choice, is opening up of financial markets and to an extent part ownership of banking and insurance, they lose so much money on both, why not let a gringo come and lose money instead if they want ? IP they will sign that they will not steal, but it's pure bs and no way to enforce, so they will gladly go along with it if it makes orange happy. Trump will remove the tariffs in 2020 when there is a full blown global recession under way and credit markets all fucked up, and that will be the end of that... Global media will parrot all day long how the global financial crisis was caused by trump's trade-war, turning the trade war into the new subprime, easier for the public to digest then the truth... He ain't getting re-elected so he can't put them back on, but by that time the tariffs will have served it's purpose and given the excuse for multinationals to flee under the " tariff " narrative Here is his tweet from earlier, does it seem like he thinks something is going to be signed ? The WTO is BROKEN when the world’s RICHEST countries claim to be developing countries to avoid WTO rules and get special treatment. NO more!!! Today I directed the U.S. Trade Representative to take action so that countries stop CHEATING the system at the expense of the USA! Markets aren't going up cause Algo's actually believe their will be a trade agreement, both countries will be in a proxy war in SA sea within few years... Markets going up cause some whale sporadically blasts the 3 main Indexes and HFT front run, that's why when they take pedal of the gas, you see ridiculous steep drops, all those equity buyers suddenly disappear ? As long as the whale keeps buying the Indexes, Algo's and HFT do their thing... I think it might be the first time where there can be a global depression and US markets will go up or sideways, the stock market has nothing to do with the economy and as long as someone is buying, HFT front run, it's going up... It stops when credit snaps, that's the only thing that will bring it down, if DB gets Lehman'd, then sp will drop 20 % in a month... There are no more meaningful organic buyers, it's all passive computers and HFT
Vanz, does this ring a bell? "These sort of corrections happen once every few years..." There have been 3 of them in the past 18 months. That philosophy is now moot, about corrections every few years, and I now must try to plan for the next correction, which seems to be just a couple months away now, since the last one was beginning of May. It was stupid of me to go long at near ATH on the YM. I'm going to pay a heavy penalty for that mistake.
Earnings are horrible so far... It's all a game right, " beating expectations "... Come on, lower forecast two times in a Q, set the bar real low, then use CNBC to parrot earnings are great for the top 15-20 Public companies, the world is fine. Like the GDP figure today, it was laughable how the praised it being so great, yet the underlying figures were as bad as it gets with credit flowing as much as it is. I believe equities will go up as long as US treasury keeps buying Indexes, ECB PBOC BoJ Australia's CB and India keep buying Indexes and letting HFT Front run, they are prisoners of their game... If they do not pump, it all falls apart, no buyers... Crazy times, not complaining on them pumping but Central Banks went from studying economies to thinking they can control it, what can go wrong ?
dude... I personally guarantee there will not be an Oct2018 in the foreseeable future... price simply does NOT move this way... let me explain.. Oct2018, the dumb money was optimistic, I have explained with my favorite forexIG indicator, long short near 50/50... then, the Jan-Apr2019 rise basically confirmed that the Oct2018 drop was 'just kidding'... and the purpose was really to cleanse the excess.. so now, everybody has realized it was 'just kidding', and the people who missed the Jan-Apr run are all kicking themselves... why would there be another 20% drop right now? for what purpose? only for the shorts to cover and the flats to buy in? while there is not much speculation longs to clean out at the moment? doesn't make any sense at all.. hence my personal guarantee. by the way this kind of stuff is also in my 'trading is easy' thread if anyone is interested.
That means, it is time to short the shit out of this market. "Personal guarantee". Really? I'm going to be down about 2 grand on a single YM contract come Sunday night. Maybe even more. So what guarantee will you give me that the market is going to fly straight up? Better yet, are you putting your money where your mouth is? What is your entry? My long YM is 27316. 1 Contract. I think I had better bail on the thing. Or maybe I should hold it. I mean, $2000 down is only 400 points in the YM. How bad can it get? Nobody here seems to remember Oct 2018, and it is starting to smell like that again. I cannot understand why nobody else here on this forum sees this as a possibility. Everyone is blinded by the light that does not exist. More code dudes.
Shut up troll, there will be a massive crash but only when credit markets snap and derivatives get activated on counter parties... Equities are flying while earnings and economic data is deteriorating bad, HK GDP is negative for Q2, Germany PMI's have been at the bottom for so long, the only way is up, pick any country ill debunk you... Only economy not heading down the toilet or teetering into a recession is US and to a degree France, but with deficits running for the US and highest level of consumer and corporate debt in history, it's really hard to have bad data, you have to be at the end game to get real bad data from the US... GDP grew 4.5 % in Q2 2008, only to get severely revised down afterwards to fit the global financial crisis narrative, so Wall St was able to get paid 100 cents on the dollar for Bail Outs, and Derivatives pay out from AIG... AIG didn't even see a penny, went straight to Goldman Remember puss it's never the losses that kill you, it's the lack of credit
Screw it, I'll lose another 10,000 for the benefit of everyone else here, who thinks the world is rosy, just to prove a point.
dude, not to sound the wrong way... I am all in and 20% drop means a 7 figure draw down for me, so yes my money is where my mouth is lol... it's only money right...lol... I just got back from the beach.... I was standing in the ocean and thinking - what is the meaning of life... accumulating these things... so what, we are just tiny particles in the universe..
Prove it. There is a new wave of folks here who PROVE that they really are in the things that they say, with assured statements, screenshots and other means. So far there is dest, trader99, and someone else I think. Cannot remember the nick, because I am so stressed out on the possibility of another 20% correction. I think a LOT of people here would like to see your real statements. You seem to have a fan base.
what's your problem... you short? I never said anything about the economy... check my latest posts, everything is about RELATIVE value.. yield spread between the LQD and SPY. look, my pro boys know, the DOW is heading to 40000... the only question is how we get there, without carrying too much dead weight - aka speculators. therefore along the way corrections are necessary... then the question is when my pro boys will knock it down.. and I have just explained the logic behind the timing of these corrections.