I don't know. I am only certain that Trump's unilateral approach and 1920s style tariffs will fail even though they will be promoted by the White House as a great success. The right approach requires first forming a coherent, multilateral collective of allies. Then great skill and insight on the part of negotiators is needed to negotiate a win win improvement in the trade relationship between China and the West. We are fooling ourselves to think that China needs us or that they will respond positively to bullying. False pride is a dangerous thing. We are no longer living in President McKinley's world. The only thing I can be absolutely certain of is that little good can come from an administration led by a sociopathic, narcissistic president, other than by blind luck of course. Consequently all our energies should be devoted to removing him from office by whatever means. Serious negotiations on any matter should be delayed until that is accomplished. That means , most likely, that every thing must be on hold until late January 2021.
- multilateral allies: that maybe a 2nd step, not the 1st.. right now the $500b surplus is already enough bullets to fire.. for now. - great skill and insight - that sounds like a subjective term though... and it's not like the WTO countries have not tried before, and I am sure quite a few skilled negotiators there... but nothing happened, China simply ignored; - win/win - I already commented on a different post. - China needs us - yes, the $500b surplus they do need... look at the RMB exchange rate... rushing to 7 again.. they need the USD to defend it... foreign reserve is already low... the RMB if allowed to free flow probably worth about $0.05, or 1USD = 20RMB... a complete currency collapse is in play here and the China leaders cannot afford that... I am not making this 1 to 20 ratio... just do a back of the envelope calculation, on how much their real estate markets are valued. - bullying - this is another subjective term... the neutral term is 'being assertive on terms assuring mutually open markets'... can't call any leveraged bargaining as 'bullying'... or call whatever you want lol... I am saying China will have to cave in... right now the $60b retaliation is just for show, so later they can claim that they won on a $60b counter-strike... they are out of bullets.. the US has A LOT MORE.
Sure. We have that. It's called the World Trade Organization. It's called the G7 countries and the G20 countries. And guess what - it's quite obvious that China doesn't give a shit. It's apparent that Chinese trade practices weren't improving under different political party leadership in Washington. You suffer from the delusion that the Communist Party of China will afford other nations the same courtesies and respect that liberal Western Democracies show each other.
https://www.newstimes.com/technolog...or-a-people-s-war-against-the-US-13843480.php everything makes sense here. before surrender you have to have dignity... have to look like you fought with full force.. hence the $60b retaliation... later you can tell your people - 'we won the people's war' eventually, an agreement is reached, the 'dignity' is saved, and the party remains in control. that's really the goal of the China leaders - you have to understand their goal.. suffering some economic loss is no big deal, they have been taking advantage of the WTO anyway... the true goal is to save face and remain in control. if you understand their true motive, all their actions would make sense.
The top Chinese officials also, are the richest people in China. They have every incentive to finally, strike a deal. All their biggest companies are owned by the state or top Chinese officials. The profits win up in their pockets. Do they want more or less monies in their pockets? They may drag negotiations longer to say to the masses, we fought hard but, this is the best we can get and it will make China more prosperous! Who is going to dispute the top Chinese communist officials headed by Xi Ping who is a lifetime President?
I can't help contradicting this feeling. On the off chance that Trump loses the race, China wins. Do you think ANY about different blockheads running for President will arrange hard with China? Perhaps Bernie.
That was tried by all previous administrations. The result is what we have today. A better strategy is to divide and conquer when you have some advantages over the others, who all ganged up against you. A simple example is just look at automobile import tariffs of Japan, EU, China, India, US ....
Tariffs never accomplish what touters claim they can. Never. Figures the the Fart of the Deal would try them.