My opinion based on no expertise at all is the US got going on this far too late and their inefficient health care system will hurt here. No idea what that means in terms of numbers just that I'd much rather be in Canada if we are honest in these kind of events. I also think most projections of the impact of calamities tend to be on the high side in general; I remember when the Japan nuclear accident occurred there were news reports of contamination hitting US west coast like it was a meaningful risk. I'm not unduly minimizing the risks but I suspect if the US throws enough resource at this the end result won't be as bad as some sources say. One of the most ridiculous news items I heard was Trump was asking the US military to man the Canadian border to prevent people crossing over to the US. The absurdity of that idea is off the charts. The man is totally lost right now doesn't have a clue how to lead a country in a crisis.
the first impression is that of a crazy man, but then his propaganda has worked so far, so I only hope people will eventually wake up and realize how dangerous it is to be led by a professional con man, especially during a major crisis. America first is a good slogan but america has never been less significant in the world as it is now, Russia and China are taking over one little piece at a time and this is bad for all of us.
Everyone in the US is already infected. It is a non-starter. Most people are asymptomatic, like they are with the flu every year. Let's call it 80%. That's 300+ million people infected with the flu with no symptoms. If last year they pulled that shit on TV, it would have been the same thing. Mass hysteria, hoarding Zycam, Alka-Seltzer sales gone wild! We, as a globe, are mostly infected with the thing by now. If they would simply stop testing people, they would have less reported cases on the CNN forever-virii-weblog-of-the-television. Day in and day out, non-stop coverage of a virus infecting the people of the world, with tick-by-tick counters of the number of people tested. Why did they never do this for Influenza-A, or the Measles, or Mumps, or Malaria, or Zika, or whatever?
My Question, Why, why all the hype and scare and fear why all the media. Normal Flu never gets a mention, it's not the same, it's slower to spread, so hasn't got the peak that goes beyond health care which we are about to see. I reckon UK is 60% infected and it'll start to slow soon as less to infect. USA has places of 60% NYC and others lagging behind, NYC deaths start peaking soon, then other areas will go crazy. My Take is, they want to scare everyone, with BIG numbers dead, then save everyone, then get a get out of jail free card for many years, to screw us all over.
Also notice, lock downs don't actually work or help, no slow down after 14days on any of the charts. Might be 100% of people and some people take 28days to get symptoms, would explain why lockdowns don't appear to stop the spread it, it's just too late.
Italy Lockdown March 9th, 19days on, 22nd March did show a reduction in new cases, but since it's been stable at that level, should drop considerably, so maybe a 14-21 days to get symptoms so 7 days needed, or XX days ?? Which supports China maxed out then dropped off.
the first two weeks of lock down are needed to separate infected from uninfected at household level, after that you have the member of an infected household getting the virus from the infected member, so another 2 weeks at the very least are needed to see the plateau. after that you need to keep social distancing in place but you can slowly start to release the lock down, provided that you have built the capability to track new cases, if you don't you start the process once more. the % of infected in UK and US is at best 0.1%. For instance for the US with over 300M population, the number of official cases is about 115K, the high end of total number of real cases is 10 times more, so over 1M very, very far from 60% of the population. Also, the main problem and the reason why it is different form the usual flue is that it spread fast and kills 10 to 30 times more causing the collapse of the health system, which in turns increases significantly the death rate. All the lock down and social distancing measures are designed to slow down the pandemic so that the health system can handle the influx of severely compromised patients that will die if not able to access ICU. So, be prepared, you have not yet seen how bad it will be, you are where Italy was 2 weeks ago, even what you say is what I was saying to weeks ago (in Italy). believe me when I say I am not exaggerating, just wait a couple of weeks and, unfortunately, you will see for yourself.
I do not trust China's numbers, I think the real numbers for China are way higher, but it is difficult to know. Regarding Italy, what is happening now is that the growth has become linear and it is not exponential any more (each day the number of newly reported cases and deaths is more or less the same, no more doubling every 2 -4 days), which may not seem much but actually it is a great improvement, next week I expect the number of daily new cases and deaths to start decreasing and that will be the sign that we are approaching the plateau. It will still take few weeks for the plateau yet. go have a look on Wikipedia (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019–20_coronavirus_pandemic) and see the progression for any country to get an Idea of what exponential and linear increase looks like...
Lockdown logic, maybe a few days not really 14 we'll say 5 before your family should have it, as likely 5 days before you can pass it on, get enough viral load. No UK NHS Symptom App, suggesting 6Million people have had it already, 14days lag and 50%+ no symptoms, it's 6Mil to 50Mil without the lock down in only 7days. So no point being locked down as most of us have awaiting symptoms. Bollox on the 10x's, that's just bad maths, your confusing tested / dead with Have / dead again. 4 x's maybe. Spread rate and over whelming the NHS we agree with, no body is doubting that, which will drastically increase deaths. We know the next few weeks will suck, I'm saying 4 weeks to peak hit and deaths dropping, your talking 9months of lockdowns, the spread is faster than you think. 33% per day, well documented, without lockdowns.