Trump has 91% chance of winning second term

Discussion in 'Politics' started by Millionaire, Jul 8, 2020.

  1. Corky5

    Corky5

    Trump will win.
     
    #21     Jul 9, 2020
  2. Atlantic

    Atlantic

  3. Bugenhagen

    Bugenhagen

    Every number around Trump becomes distorted.



    This is the Wharton genius (when acceptance rates were over 50 percent and he still had to transfer in using family pull).

    @Millionaire (not being mathematically illiterate and an expert in millions) will of course point out that the percentage of cases with 20 million tests will not be half of 40 million.
     
    Last edited: Jul 10, 2020
    #23     Jul 10, 2020
  4. Millionaire

    Millionaire


    He did not say in that tweet the percentage would be halved.

    Seems like he was saying number of known cases would be half.

    I dont know about half, but the number of known cases would be a lot less, with 20 million tests vs 40 million tests
     
    #24     Jul 10, 2020
  5. Bugenhagen

    Bugenhagen

    Come on now, that implies he was talking absolute numbers which would make him a complete idiot not just bad at math. :) give him some credit.

    You are not saying he tried to fool people into thinking the absolute numbers had any meaning relative to other developed nations?

    You see if the nunbers of infected are rising, testing less won't reduce the percentage of positive tests. So please explain for the cheap seats was he being stupid or just a con man.
     
    #25     Jul 10, 2020
  6. Millionaire

    Millionaire

    If in the last month the US has a massive uptick in then number of tests it is doing vs other countries. Then he is correct. But i dont know if that is the case or not.

    If so it would look like daily cases are up 100% or whatever (vs a month ago) in the US and everywhere else they are flat or falling or rising much slower
     
    Last edited: Jul 10, 2020
    #26     Jul 10, 2020
  7. Bugenhagen

    Bugenhagen

    Seriously... Have you no self-respect?

    You are defending a preposterous nonsense, grasping at straws regarding what he maybe meant, if it were factual.
     
    #27     Jul 10, 2020
  8. Millionaire

    Millionaire

    Im not defending him, just saying if the US has been upping its tests in the last month. And other countries havent. Then the daily chart for the US will rising more than other countries.

    eg
    US does more tests, daily new cases goes from 20,000 cases a day to 60,000. A 200% increase.

    Perfectly possible.
    But this is all statistics, and who knows what the truth is.

    At the peak in the US when 2,500 a day were dying, that means over 300,000 people a day were catching the virus.

    Even now if 1000 people a day are currently dying, that means the true number of new daily cases is likely to be closer to 150,000 a day

    Recorded test cases going from 20,000 to 60,000 a day is just noise.
     
    Last edited: Jul 10, 2020
    #28     Jul 10, 2020

  9. True more cases would lead to more positive results....but if people practiced social distancing and used PPE and other protective measures then even with more testing the numbers should not be increasing so dramatically/exponentially then. More testing is measure by % rates for Corona.

    If we did huge numbers of testing and positive rates were at 10% and over time they were dropping to 6% and then to 4% and then to 2% then we could say that in absolute values the numbers are increasing but the rate is decreasing due to protective measures.

    Also the rate of people dying has increased significantly.

    So the bullshit that more testing leads to more cases as a way to make stupid people ignore the increasing number of cases is just that...bullshit and more should be expected from anyone with basic understanding of statistics or trends.

    Trump understands neither and does not care to listen to those who do. To him it will just disappear and everything is magically and fantastic.
     
    #29     Jul 10, 2020
  10. Bugenhagen

    Bugenhagen

    Herd immunity (to Trump) is rapidly approaching boys.

    When you are trying to justify what the POTUS might have meant, maybe, based on a hypothetical change in testing numbers you are too lazy to verify, you are not showing yourself, us or your parents who probably tried to not raise you to be a hopeless sucker, any respect.

    He is not a complicated man and has been using the same inter-country comparison of absolute test numbers for ages because he knows his core followers are far too dumb to get its nonsensical.
     
    Last edited: Jul 10, 2020
    #30     Jul 10, 2020