https://www.nationalreview.com/2020/05/donald-trump-reelection-much-tougher-road-than-most-think/ The president faces a much tougher road to reelection than most seem to think. President Trump was disappointed. Bad weather on Wednesday forced a delay in SpaceX’s planned launch of the Dragon spacecraft, robbing the president of a prized photo opportunity. He plans to attend the next launch, scheduled for May 30 at 3:22 p.m. EDT, but the spoiled visit to Florida punctuated another week of foreboding news from the campaign trail. The coronavirus has left President Trump without his signature issue (the economy) and without his preferred venue (the tentpole rally). The bump in his approval rating as Americans rallied around the flag at the outset of the crisis is gone. Assessments of Trump’s performance during the pandemic look a lot like his approval rating overall: polarized by party, and upside down. He continues to trail Joe Biden in both national and swing–state polls. The margins are narrow, but they are also consistent. President Trump has not been ahead in any live-interview national poll conducted this year. Yet an aura of invincibility surrounds the president. That is why the same polls that show him losing to Biden also show that the public expects him to win. It is why betting markets favor him, too. After all, the story goes, Trump accomplished the impossible in 2016. He defeated the second-most-unpopular candidate in American history (he was number one) against all odds. Why can’t he do it again? The president’s imagination, ruthlessness, and guile, the shortcomings of his uninspiring and slightly out-of-it opponent, and the Teflon quality of this campaign have lulled the public and the GOP into a sense of complacency. Sure, things look bad. But Trump will find a way out of it. He always does. Well, maybe not this time. The 2020 election looks more and more like a contest between luck and precedent. On one side is President Trump’s incredible run of good fortune. On the other side is the weight of history. Consider: Every president reelected since Mr. Gallup’s first poll in 1935 enjoyed at least one day, and often several, when his approval rating was above 50 percent. That is something President Trump has not experienced. Not since 1940 has a president been reelected with a double-digit unemployment rate. Nor has a president been reelected with an unemployment rate two or more points higher than when he entered office. Unemployment was 15 percent in April 2020, and is expected to rise for at least a while longer. It was 5 percent in January 2017. The recovery will need to have the trajectory of an Elon Musk rocket for unemployment to fall to less than 7 percent by November 3. That is when America will hold its 59th presidential election. In all but five of the previous 58 contests, the same man won both the popular and electoral votes. The fact that two of the exceptions occurred in the past 20 years has distorted our perspective. We begin to consider it not only possible but probable that President Trump could win reelection without winning the popular vote. History suggests that what is possible is also unlikely. Reelection was a prize awarded to just one of the four men before Trump who entered office on the basis of the Electoral College alone. John Quincy Adams lost to Andrew Jackson in the rematch of 1828. Rutherford B. Hayes did not run for a second term in 1880. Benjamin Harrison lost to Grover Cleveland in the rematch of 1892. The exception was George W. Bush, who defeated John Kerry in both the popular and electoral votes in 2004. Bush, like Trump, faced an unexpected crisis in his first term. His decisive and compassionate leadership during the 9/11 attacks and their aftermath was an important factor in his reelection. Voters for whom terrorism was the most important issue backed Bush by a 72-point margin, according to the exit poll, and at that time majorities approved of the war in Iraq (51 percent) and considered it part of the war on terrorism (55 percent). Bush’s approval rating in the exit poll was 53 percent. In the May 27 Reuters–Ipsos poll, the public disapproved of President Trump’s handling of the coronavirus pandemic, while backing him on the economy and jobs. His job approval was 41 percent. In the May 21 Fox poll, it was 44 percent. Nowhere close to where it has to be to win a second term. And so, America waits for Trump to pull a rabbit out of his hat. What might that look like? A stunning economic rebound would bolster the president’s strengths and restore confidence in his stewardship. Trump’s opponent might delegitimize himself through continued gaffes, a vice-presidential selection that frightens more people than it reassures, and debate performances that heighten concerns about age and ability. Something unexpected might happen. The campaign is young. As a wise man once wrote, only an idiot would bet against Donald Trump. 359 Right now, though, Republicans have every reason to be worried about November
Consider: Every president reelected since Mr. Gallup’s first poll in 1935 enjoyed at least one day, and often several, when his approval rating was above 50 percent. That is something President Trump has not experienced. History suggests that what is possible is also unlikely. Reelection was a prize awarded to just one of the four men before Trump who entered office on the basis of the Electoral College alone.
Keep dreaming. ET trolling is not a good paying job as they would have you believe. I am sure you also, believe ex-President Barack Obama did a helluva job as US President? Maybe, as a divider-in-chief and nothing much else. I am sure tens of millions of Americans love the riots as they destroyed small businesses, looted, burned stores and buildings, deface properties. That is what the Democrats support. Yeah, nobody is paying attention that Democrat mayors and governors with police and national guard at their disposal, allowed rioters to loot, burn and destroy their cities while, telling police and national guard to stand down. Looters just passing them by without them making an effort to stop them for 2 whole days? What are the odds, majority of voters want to trust the Democrats on running the US with how they handled the riots?
I don't know. Trump isn't doing himself any favors with his idiocy online. If the democrats can keep ol' senile Joe hidden until the end by claiming something with Covid or safety and he isn't seen by the public, then they might have a good chance here. That's why all these distractions are surfacing.
Democrats are throwing everything out but, the kitchen sink but, they also, highlighting their incompetence. A lot of minority businesses has been torched, robbed or both. I do not think they would be loving their Democrat politicians because of it. Jobless claims falling, businesses re-opening in the US, stockmarket rallying. That is why Antifa was out in force in these riots. They are trying to stop the US economy from going back stronger than ever. And if they elect Joe Biden, I guess I will be calling you comrade. The US will be a Communist banana republic in 3 months time tops.
It is time for Trump supporters to face reality. Trump had two golden chances in 2020 to show his leadership skills; COVID-19 and the Floyd protests. He blew both opportunities -- doing little more than continually tweeting nonsense and holding rambling press briefings. If he had improved in the last 5 days and acted minimally Presidential he would have had a chance of salvaging his election chances as people let the COVID issues slide. Instead he became even more disconnected from providing leadership in a time of crisis.
I thought Joe's speech yesterday was quite good, but I agree less is more. Trump is digging his own grave, all Joe has to do is be quiet and I think he's got it.
Not worried. If Americans are really that dumb to elect Joe Biden as the US President, it is not going to matter. He is going to open the US borders and you really think you or your children will have a future in a communist US? Good luck with that fantasy tale. And it won't be long before the Chinese communists take over. Why would they let American communists remain in charge when they can easily take over? China already has numerous spies in the US, all loyal to Beijing. When they takeover, everyone at the top will all be Chinese communists. Better brush up on your Mandarin. Atleast, the lazy, extreme liberal Democrat slugs will be the first ones on the chopping block. The Chinese communists would not have any use for them. Chinese communists have no qualms killing people if they have to. It is not going to stop them now.
the debates will be a big unknown. We know how Trump will behave. How will Joe hold up? If he can hold up or if the Democrats can figure a way to not have him debate (who knows, they're clever at coming up with this crap) then he's got it. If he reveals himself to be a senile laughingstock, then you can forget about it. Of course, the democrats can still pull a rabbit and run someone like Cuomo at the last minute. Hell, even I might vote for Cuomo. I would love a reason to not vote Trump.