FAKE NEWS. Trump is the odds on favorite. He did the the Micklethwait interview and absolutely shredded him.
Not really, Real clear politics has him winning. Countless betting markets have him winning. 538 has him winning. Nate Silver has him winning. Who is claiming he is not? If Harris is doing so great, why is Hussein Obama freaking out?
People who actually understand the swing states. The election is already over, bar one of the other dropping dead nothing changes now. Some things a person can't learn until after the event. This isn't one of them but you will just keep claiming victory because you are you. Now I must dig deep and watch the next half of Meet Cute with the missus. What a perfect frame to be paused on.
The price of bitcoin is also signalling a Trump victory. Trump believes that cryptocurrency is the future which has driven the BTC price up over the last month.
Bananazi says you're good @wildchild. Trump believes the crypto is the future. Believe the signs coz consciousness creates reality. Oh thank FSM the movie is over. Night.
I don't believe markets of any kind can "signal a political victory" one way or the other. If you truly believe that...wouldn't you be saying that the Dow and S&P are signaling a political victory for Harris after making record highs when she believes the economy is improving this year ??? Dow and S&P end at fresh record highs, lifted by Netflix earnings and tech stocks Oct 18 (Reuters) - The Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 chalked up record closing highs on Friday, with the Nasdaq also in positive territory, as markets were boosted by an earnings-driven jump in Netflix shares and broader gains across technology stocks. All three major Wall Street benchmarks also comfortably secured a sixth straight weekly gain, their longest weekly winning streaks since late 2023. For the week, the S&P 500 gained 0.9%, the Nasdaq Composite advanced 0.8%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 1%. https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/...tflix-jumps-after-strong-earnings-2024-10-18/ https://www.cnbc.com/2024/10/17/stock-market-today-live-updates.html https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-10-17/stock-market-today-dow-s-p-live-updates I prefer to keep election year predictions independent of financial market predictions especially when I'm trading. wrbtrader
Trump has been positioning himself as a pro crypto since July of this year, and a Trump victory is seen as bullish for bitcoin. The idea that financial markets are great indicators is the basis of the efficient market hypothesis which has been proven to be pretty robust. As many traders will confirm its damn hard to beat the market.
You didn't answer the question... The financial markets are making record highs with a Biden/Harris administration (not Trump/Pence or Trump/Vance) believing that the economy is improving along with the FED now properly managing rates. If you believe the financial markets are great indicators as proven by the "efficient market hypothesis" (it's robust) for predicting who will win the 2024 elections... What do the Dow and S&P making record highs with 75% of the companies in the S&P beating earnings expectations while an economy is improving just weeks before the election...what's their prediction for the winner of the 2024 U.S. Presidential election considering you're the one that mentioned Bitcoin as a prediction tool ??? Once again, as a trader, I do not make trade decisions based on political parties or their investments but I do follow closely what the FED does. P.S. Efficient Market Hypothesis involves stock market and investing...not trading. Many famous investors (e.g. Peter Lynch, Warren Buffett and about 27% of investment funds) have beaten the stock markets but that's not the question here. Opponents of the efficient markets hypothesis advance the simple fact that there ARE investors – people such as John Templeton, Peter Lynch, and Paul Tudor Jones – who DO consistently, year in and year out, generate returns on investment that dwarf the performance of the overall market. According to the EMH, that should be impossible other than by blind luck. However, blind luck can not explain the same people beating the market by a wide margin, over and over again...over a long span of time. wrbtrader