Troubling U.S.A State of Iowa Temperature Trend.

Discussion in 'Ag Futures' started by kanellop, May 24, 2012.

  1. kanellop

    kanellop

  2. kanellop

    kanellop

    Hello to All.

    Exist the following News from the last PFGBEST Tim Hannagan's,

    The Grain Report of 24 May 2012 07:54 AM PDT.

    Here it is:

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    Thoughts on Stocks

    Posted: 24 May 2012 07:54 AM PDT

    THOUGHTS ON STOCKS………. Thursday's exports sales report showed 754 t.m.t. of wheat was sold for new crop shipments after June 1 when wheats new marketing year begins. All the key_buyers were countries interested in milling wheat for human consumption and little to no low grade for the feed ration. Our wheat harvest is beginning and since our US wheat is currently the highest quality crop out there we should expect to be the primary port of origin in the world for readily available high quality milling wheat. Were hoping to continue being the world's number-one port for low-quality feed wheat as well. We sit on 500 million bushels left from last years crop disaster, but wheats recent rally has wheat valued measurably higher now to corn. Corn exports were 156 t.m.t. for old crop and 325 for new crop season delivery after September 1.The total of new and old export season numbers were under expectations, but considering last week's enormous price rallied from 5.74 to 6.44 we should have expected importers to back away. Note, China moved a large previous purchases from old crop corn delivery to new crop year after September 1 . Clearly China's buying into the last USDA report that suggests we will plant record corn acres, have a record yields and double our ending stocks. Now, it's a analyst job to think outside the box. Here's how next year's robust ending stocks numbers can fall apart. Remember last year, as we entered spring the government projected a big increase in planted corn acres and ending stocks about 1.6 billion bushels. Commercial end users all said get ready for 4 dollar corn. Well, a wet spring, a dry July and too much harvest rain led to a big rally to 7.994 and almost running out of corn and ending stocks under 1 b.b. On the last USDA monthly crop report, they took a 20 year average corn yields, skipping last year's poor yield of 147 bushels per acre and came up with a projected 164 bushels per acre then added 2 bushels more per acre to 1.66, a new record, for early planting or maybe just good luck and came up with a 1.8 billion bushels ending stocks inventory for the new year. But if you take a 20 year average including last year. You come up with 160 bushels per acre and ending stocks of 1.3 billion bushels. This makes more sense to start with. Then good or bad weather either increases or decreases yields. Now a shell game is played. The last USDA report increased old crop ending stocks 50 million bushels saying early planting will lead to a early harvest beginning in August the old crop year putting new crop year plantings into old crop year carryover. Consider this. In 2008 and 09 we harvested about 300 million bushels early. In 2007 and 10, about 600 m.b. 2011 about 450 m.b. Some analytical gurus suggest this year 1 billion bushels could be harvested early. This would change all the usage figures on distribution. Lets say we have a 160 b.p.a. yield and only harvest 500 m.b. early. That means the 1.3 billion bushels carryover drops to 800 million bushels on paper and right back to where we are now. Now, what happens if weather cuts yields 3 bushels per acre and the June 30 planted acreage report shows what's some believe and that being the big early spring soybeans rally over corn will show farmers switched 2 m.a. intended for corn on the March 30 planting intention report to beans. Now ending stocks are under 400 m.b. Food for thought on just how fast things can change. Bean exports were 800 t.m.t. old crop and 153 new crop year, with China in for a whopping 536 of the total. Note, Brazil has sold 87% of its crop essentially leaving the US as the sole port of origin in the world to buy beans from until South America comes online next February. After a hot dry week, next week looks uncertain. WXRISK.com the AG weather site says the GFS weather model calls for heavy rain Sunday into Tuesday in the spring wheat states. Minnesota, North and South Dakota and Montana with lighter amounts in Iowa, Nebraska, Illinois, Indiana and Missouri. But the more successful European weather model has little to no rain across the heart of the Midwest grain belt. The high heat Sunday and Monday also suggests lighter rain amounts. Since there's no weather agreement conservative traders will go home flat. The high risk traders will go long into the holiday weekend betting the better European track record and high heat will give us a higher opening Monday night. Technicals read like this entering Friday's opening. Support on July corn 5.74 then 5.64 resistance 6.00 then 6.44. Support for December corn 5.08 then 4.98. Resistance 5.20 then 5.50.Support on July beans. 13.50 then 13.25. Resistance 13.95 then 14.50. Support on November beans 12.50 then 12.25 resistance 13.00, then 13.40. July wheat support is 6.58 then 6.40 resistance 6.80, then 7.22. Note , weather remains 90% of our pricing influence through early August.

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    Kind Regards,

    George Kanellopoulos.
     
  3. kanellop

    kanellop

  4. Rich Dennis used to say during the spring and summer of 1988.

    " Show me a forecast for rain and i might bring an umbrella to work........."

    he traded the long side for 6 months straight.

    a few days of rain in a dust bowl summer is zip for long side traders.

    s
     
  5. kanellop

    kanellop

    Hello to All.

    This hour exist the following News:

    http://www.agrimoney.com/news/morgan-stanley-cautions-over-yield-as-corn-worsens--4582.html .

    Also, here:

    http://farmfutures.com/story.aspx/afternoon-recap-arlan-suderman-22-30795 ,

    exist the following:

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    Corn prices tumbled today once they broke through support at the fall harvest low of $5.72-1/4. That pulled the July contract to the lowest level for any lead contract since December 2010. Prices then also broke through support at $5.62, with next chart support at $5.06. This leaves corn futures prices at considerable risk, with hedge fund managers understanding chart signals better than supply and demand fundamentals. As a result, fund managers are believed to have sold 15,000 contracts today, or 75 million bushels of corn.

    Cash basis remains strong overall, but it has softened in some markets as give-up selling releases some bushels on the market. There still is some corn out there, but keep in mind that the market needs about 245 million bushels per week until harvest of the 2012 crop begins in earnest in August.

    Weekend rains provided timely relief for many dry areas of the Midwest, but nearly half the region received less than 0.50”, making follow-up rains essential with the event expected later this week. Reports of rootless corn are coming from much of Iowa, but also many areas of Illinois as well. Severity is between 5% and 50% of affected fields according to agronomists. The problem is primarily associated with corn planted in late April in fields with enough moisture at seed depth to support germination, but a lack of moisture above that to support development of nodal roots later in the crop’s development. Agronomists fear that the problem will linger into the growing season.

    Exporters shipped 29.5 million bushels of corn in the week ending May 24, up from 25.9 million the previous week, but below the five-year average for the week of 39.9 million. The past week’s total included an impressive 12.4 million bushels destined for China.

    USDA reports that marketing year shipments to date to all destinations total 1.193 billion bushels, down 109 million or 8% from the previous year. However, official Census Bureau data suggests that USDA may be under-reporting shipments. Shipments to date exceed the seasonal pace needed to reach USDA’s export target by August 31 by 10 million bushels, but the gap is narrowing.

    Exports only make up abou15% of U.S. demand for corn, but export data is the tail the wags the dog in the futures market, as demand data for the sector is reported twice each week. Argentina’s crop was short this year, but it still does have some to sell. Argentine corn is said to be priced 50 to 70 cents below U.S. levels, while it lasts.

    December corn probed briefly below last week’s low of $5.10-1/4, but bounced again late in the open outcry session when selling interest dried up at that point. Next support sits at $5.00, with traders waiting on this afternoon’s crop ratings and this week’s rains for future direction.

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    Kind Regards,

    George Kanellopoulos.
     
  6. kanellop

    kanellop

  7. kanellop

    kanellop

    Seems that i forget to put something other for the free Weather Data.

    It is here: http://water.weather.gov/precip/ .

    Also, if someone go to the Middle Left of that Internet Page will see the Timeframe.

    Below of it,

    will see the Days.

    If choose to put there the:

    ...Last 7 Days, ....Last 14 Days, ...Last 30 Days, etc.,

    then the exactly Next Box will change,

    and the Observed that exist only inside of it,

    it will have more Parameters that can choose someone from.

    These will be:

    Observed,

    Normal,

    Departure from Normal,

    Percent of Normal.

    Kind Regards,

    George Kanellopoulos.