Triple top on S&P, are we at a top?

Discussion in 'Trading' started by 1a2b3cppp, Mar 31, 2013.

  1. This is the biggest scale there is. You can't zoom out any more.

  2. KMAX


    maybe. Also, the cyclicals have been weak. But looking the spy chart I don't see a volume spike that usually shows up at tops.
  3. semiopen


    It could be a double bottom as opposed to a triple top.

    My current impression is that the chart is bullish, maybe suggestng a move to 2100 or so on the S&P and 17,000 on the Dow.

    Admittedly, at first glance it looks scary.
  4. Wouldn't it have been a double bottom back in 2009?

    Also, can a double bottom be sloped down like that?

  5. semiopen


    The market made a convincing reaction off the double bottom in 2009 to get where it is now.

    The down slope of the bottoms seems trivial to me, sort of a head fake.

    Chart patterns of this size are very rare, but it probably means as much as similar shorter term formations. Which is not too much. A bullish view of this has paid off recently however.

    I've studied this chart quite a bit and thought it was a poster boy for impending disaster. I changed my mind last summer.
  6. Many express their opinion about the ultimate resolution of this pattern...

    1. Nobody knows... players just express their "gut"

    2. If SP 1600 holds, that's a HUGE triple-top.... maybe declining back to some formation involving prior big lows.

    3. If SP 1600 breaks above and holds, 1600 can be used as a sensible stop point.

    Suggest..... trade with your eyes, not your gut.
  7. The "2009 sloppy 2X bottom" was a decision from 4 years ago. Has nothing to do with now. The "possible 3X top @ ~1600" is the currently operative play.
  8. What I meant was knowing now that there was a double bottom 3 years ago doesn't help.

    Identifying it then may have helped.
  9. semiopen


    It's easiest to see patterns after they have formed.

    You misidentify the current pattern as a triple top. If the S&P would reverse from the up trend at this point, we would have a triple top. It hasn't done that.

    Like I said, I think the pattern is bullish. In any case, I'll trade bullishly until there is evidence of a reversal.
    #10     Apr 1, 2013