Triple Dip Recession or Depression?

Discussion in 'Economics' started by morganist, Jan 29, 2013.

  1. Era's come and go.

    The US campaign stayed with the Industrial Era.

    The QE of the US has just switched from "time Targets" to "categorical targets". Notably "unemployment".

    QE looks pretty steady out to Q3 of 2014. The US gov't is using a higher value of QE than the private sector esimates is required.

    All of the above combines to dictate that we are in a Depression from about JUN/JUL 2006.

    The present era may be termed "service" or "information". Either way, jobs creation does not need to be predicated on "full employment". A full employment orientation just disappeared around the mid 50's for those who were sophisitcated.

    In my lifetime the economic concept of "fad" first appeared measurably with the Club of Rome valuation of "satisfaction".

    The cotton and plastic raw materials showed as inverse curves. The smoking curve resembled the cotton curve.

    I usually post in DEC for the next annual legs (market directional moves); 2013 will be the most unimaginable year on record.

    I was glad to see you posted some reality for others to consider.

    Curves will be "cascading" as a consequence of financial controllers taking others out of irrational participation. Neiderhoffer was a good example a while back as was LTCM. 2013 is a global "lock" and the cascading is more and more potentially demonstratable in terms of leading 'tells'.

    I use a 1600 bar(5 min, RTH only) market PACE measure and it has halved in recent times. (1 year difference). Sidelined cash is not a coincidence.

    The US debt ratings usually decline when no more can kicking is possible. The triple A grows more distant than each step away in the opposite direction. The eastward movement of the Chinese desert almost matches the US fiscal policy decay.
  2. piezoe


    We have a little economic lab going here with three experiments being run simultaneously in the U.S.A , the EU, and Great Britain --that wisely held on to its own currency.

    Curiously, you would think that G.B. would be the firmest advocate of Keynes, but it is the U.S.A. instead (so far).

    I'm long the U.S. Fed and have gone all in. (I just want to see even more deficit spending on infrastructure, job creation, research, and education, but damn those neo-liberals, they want to spoil the party.
    ( I don't even want to see rapid cuts in defense, just slow inexorable cuts to take it down to 50% of present spending over a decade. And naturally, I'm in favor of total overhaul of U.S. medicine -- maybe Obamney care is a first step, maybe not.)

    Also, damn those Japanese for telling the truth. Don't you know you're supposed to pledge yourself on a Samurai sword to a strong Yen while dropping Yen from helicopters? First rule of successful Central Banking: Never, ever, tell the Truth. Good Lord! They could start a currency war with that nasty truthiness. :D :D :D
  3. Laurent P

    Laurent P

    Thanks for the article, I enjoyed it very much.

  4. The Japanese want a lower yen, and they are getting it.
  5. piezoe


    But good Lord! They shouldn't have announced it to the world. In the time honored tradition of central bankers everywhere, well everywhere except Japan apparently, they should have lied. :D
  6. you sure about that?

    they made it quite obvious they are willing to go to 100

    thereby putting a warning to anyone that wants to short usd.jpy

    worked for me

    I don't like trading anything people are talking about
  7. the idea that bad economic news can be good for the stock market because that keeps the fed money in longer is the scariest part to me.
  8. how many times do I have to tell you this?

    We are not trading the economy

    We are trading what people will probably do
    #10     Jan 30, 2013