This goes against the sentiment of 90%+ posters on here, but.. Yesterday, NYSE TRIN was 4.27. This is usually the territory of a long-term bottom. A similar thing happened on January 4. Trivia question: What was the last time two TRINs were > 4 within 2-3 weeks? Answer: March 2003.
Statistics like that are why I don't use historical data for determining trading decisions. March 2003 and January 2008 are totally different trading environments with totally different fundamentals. Only a dumb statistic (TRIN) and arbitrary number (4 on the TRIN) will come up with these conclusions. If you follow these signals and hold on to stocks for several months, you are liable to lose your ass.
This coming from someone who waxes not-so-eloquently all day about buy/sell program wars... The TRIN isn't foolproof but I'll take it over your conjecture any day. It has a lot more accurate and longer-term track record. No offense...
Let say I sent you a message by placing 20 separate words on separate pieces of paper. If you can read the message you gain unlimited wealth. The thing is you only understand what 5 of the words mean. If some one came along with a definition for one of the words, would you try to work with it or just tell them to move along?