Good Morning Volpri, Yes, you are right. It is all about high probability trades in favor that will give you a quick traders scalp. Because when trading the small time frame charts like 5 minutes, too hard to hold for the swing and make mistakes and have regrets. I understand why you scalp.
I posted this in another thread on my my thought processes while looking at a chart. So e may find it useful or not? MY THOUGHT PROCESSES AS I LOOK AT A CHART. I am looking for bullish/bearish pressures within three contexts: 1) The larger context. This is the market cycle I speak of in my journal. This contexts reveals the larger buy/sell pressures. 2) The patterns that form i.e. triangles…wedges…trend lines…BO’s…. Flags…etc indicate pressures in the intermediate context and SHOULD be correlated with number 1 above. 3) The immediate context. Beside the phase of the market cycle (the larger context) and the intermediate context (price patterns) there is an immediate context. Each bar and it’s position relative to other nearby bars reveals something of the pressures. Each bar being a bear bar, bull bar, or doji bar upon it’s close reveals more hints about the immediate pressures. Consecutive “like” bars indicate pressures..i.e. several bull bars in sequence or several bear bars in sequence. The size of the bars (range) also reveal more about the pressures. I am keen on “seeing” which side is winning, the bears or the bulls, in all three contexts then employing trading tactics, techniques, or setups that give me more probability of a successful trade. The question to ask myself: Given a view of the contexts above, with their buying and selling pressures, which they reveal, will my PT likely be hit before my initial risk is hit? If I can get a positive traders equation then I will take the trade and may even employ additional tactics after an taking an initial position….for example…such as averaging down. In the right context averaging down gives me even GREATER probability of a successful scalp (1 to 8 points in ES) and greater profit potential as I am adding at cheaper prices and when price turns and goes my way I make MORE money. If I have read the pressures correctly I should, in addition, have a high win rate. If I average down and I am right on the pressures I also increase my probability of a winner AND thus a bigger monetary winner. If I am wrong on my read then averaging down increases my probability of getting out at BE or a small loss. The dynamics of price movement after my entires will reveal if my read was wrong or right. Of course there are times when an average down position will go totally awry and I have to have an exit point where I will totally dump the loser followed by doubling or tripling up new entry, but in the correct direction. This way I get back my loss quickly and usually also back in profit.
i would rather do this than get stopped out using tight stop. of course you can always re-enter.......... but i rather use a wide stop .........if if you avoid doing this in what is a fairly strong trend or tight channel, then it is unlikely that the wide stop will be hit. if market does something that indicates that the market is changing the condition, then you can get out before the stop and that will mean your risk was not big
you are totally confused. just because you trade 5 min you should scalp? scalp or swing depends on market cycle....... if in a strong trend ,stop order bulls/bears lose money then hold for a swing. once stop order bulls/bears make money .....it is no longer a strong trend and you can begin to trade it like a range. if it is a wide range then you can swing it to the extreme of the range. you are thinking 'scalp always' because market is in a range 80% of time.........but you will lose money 20% of the time...which is avoidable this is an interesting way to see things: if in a strong bull, there is a correction and then the limit order bulls ,bulls that scale into their longs ,lose money then it is the end of that bull swing. in the chart the bulls that scaled in between the blue lines ,lost money because market went up to red arrow and reversed.........below the yellow line......a good place to short
another way of thinking is that if the market is a range, and you take both bear and bull trading signals [ H1H2 L1 L2 ] you will make money on both signals. if you then lose money on one trade, then the market is in BO and so you can reverse the lost trade and make money. this is what volpri does. it also means that brooks is always talking sense but he just does not explain it enough. to take it further if you take a l2 and you lose money then the market is in bull phase. this is quite useful information that you have paid for with your loss
this explains well a simple but an important and often misunderstood subject Bar Counting with Al - YouTube
it also means that what everyone is saying is right: that i am an imbecile and arshole etc to take 14 years to figure all of this out. but those who said that after 14 years i should give up on brooks are totally wrong. that was the only smart thing i did.....stayed with brooks. i have there fore come to the conclusion that brooks is a genius and deserves this tribute
so if there is a range and at the low of therange , H1H2 does not form but a L1L2 forms then you have a BO