easy there bud, we're just having a discussion. prices that you see on your fx chart follow a stochastic process within complex linear themes (which are exploitable). i used to sit on the fx & rates desk and traded interbank and against fast money -- trying to use charts as the sole basis of your trading strategy is not going work due to those complex themes (and the stochastic process-- you will go crazy just staring at a chart). if you overlay economic data on top of your fx range, and develop a view on underlying drivers of the fx pair, you'll do much better.
Must I school you? If you will look at a chart and OBSERVE you will "see." But first get any birdsh$t out of your eyes. Anytime price tries to go out of a channel (top or bottom 1/3 to 1/4 area) that is a BO attempt by the bulls and bears. Most fail. BY far. That is precisely why the channel forms! When a BO attempt above the top or below the bottom actually does occur, there is a 75% of a chance within 5 bars or so that price will trade back into the channel. The channel cannot form if most BO attempts succeed. We won't see a channel. As concerns the algo. PA and it's dynamics (which is how price is made and not just that it was made) indicates an algo or algos since 90% of the market is traded by computers. Old timers like me are a dying breed BUT we still be alive. Look the market is institution trading against institution. HFT's against HFT's. Brokerage house have orders to fill and they will do so. GS wants to take money from other institutions. They ain't interested in us and our potato chip money. They are after the big BUCKS not the little Does. Do you see the atomic explosion on that successful BO sound by that red arrow. That was institutional algo blowing price south and bullish algos relented and gave up. They will come back in later when the big molecule jingle (inertia) ends. End of class. I gotta to go. Throw randomness and brownian BS out the window and do a serious study of Mr B. You might actually learn a few things. Good day. It ain't right I hijack padutraders's thread so I am leaving.
Look longandshort you have pissed off padutrader. Any time his text gets larger and larger and red he is pissed. You may need to go somewhere else and take a dump with your brownian crap and randomness BS. Nevertheless, I enjoyed MOST of the conversation. Good day.
This is my last chart in Padu's thread today. DO YOU SEE WHAT HAPPENED? Read my last sentence of the second to last paragraph in my post #1152 above. Forgive me padu. I just can't help myself I guess. I really could I suppose, but I have been having fun with mr longandshort but I will stop here. For today.
Most of the time, what you are seeing as a failing breakout, is actually a marginal change in volume. This happens due to a variety of factors, but primarily the incremental change in flow. No one except small money is trading 5 minute charts. Two weeks ago I bought $17MM of a security within 30 minutes and caused a small collapse in the price (representing nearly 80% of ask volume). I made no further trades on that particular security that day. On the chart, you would have (incorrectly) assumed someone was selling. You might have also (incorrectly) assumed that there were traders angling for a breakout. You could not have inferred my intentions through the chart, because the actual result was contra -- the price fell (down 60 bps) with volume rising. At the end of the day, the security was up over 1%. I use algos all the time to manage orders-- no one is placing significant money on something like a "bearish breakout" algo lol. What you are seeing is the market respond to new information (flow, data, etc.) and adjusting, all in aggregate. you don't know how institutions trade lol. HFTs are generally market makers that try to sniff out informed trading. Some trades an institution makes is informed, some are liquidity driven, and sometimes it is not informed (bad trade idea or just noise). Most trading occurs during peak liquidity (at close), to reduce market impact. If you knew basic concepts like kyle's limit or how orders are matched and internalized you'd understand this. No one (with real capital, or even $1MM+) is trading 5 minute chart patterns. By the way, the vast majority of institutional investors (read: mutual funds and hedge funds) do not beat their benchmark. The top of the pack is so competitive that they are eating everyone's lunch. If you want to make money trading, you need some humility and understand that you do not stand a chance against those teams just through your interpretation of candle charts using Al Brooks' methods. Al Brooks is a quack.
$17 mm? You are really funny. Of course algos are responding and adjusting. But if you were trading $17 mm on brownian, noise, and randomness (which I doubt) and price dropped I don’t care if bids were backing away or orders adjusting. Algos were exiting. And that shows up on a chart. 5 min or any time frame you choose. And I will trade it. I don’t care what made the drop. I do care what happened, how it happened and can it be traded. I don’t really care why it happened. As concerns humility. The market doesn’t know if I am humble or a smartass and if it could know such things it wouldn't mean diddly squat. It is not out to get me. It is not out to teach me a lesson. I do fairly good with rather high win rate scalping based on Brooks methods and some of my adaptations added, therefore I don’t consider him a quack. I do consider your adopted theories of brownian movements…noise…and randomness…applied to trading …as well…. border lining on quackery. In addition, if what you postulate is true then no retail trader has any chance at succeeding so why would you even come on ET just to irritate folks and stir up people. There is a word for that you know. You are too busy swinging millions around. Carry on. How can you say Brooks ideas is quackery when you haven’t even seriously tried them. Nor even seriously studied them. You are border lining on hilarious my friend. Throwing millions around and on ET schooling us retail traders. Why don’t you just go back and swim with the whales and leave us minnows to fiend for ourselves. Talk about needing humility! ROFLMAO
With respect to all, I do not believe for a minute that padutrader is representative of a trained Brooks method trader. You seemed to have stated all Brooks students are losing trader. padu is consistent loser it seems yes. But what proof have you that all Brooks students are losing traders?
it's a hunch. what proof do you have that al brooks is actually a successful trader? He's been asked to release his trading history but refuses to do so.
None. I have no proof. But I seem to be learning some real facts about the market from his course. So I judge on that. As Mr volpri has said, enough is enough. Good day to you.