this is where you are being fooled my randomness. Look into tca to understand how investors actually trade and how it impacts volume (which in turn impacts price). The relationship between volume and price is well documented (higher stock volumes and higher stock prices are correlated as is the opposite). Prices between informational events are random and tend to mean revert.
. Volpri, Speedo and longandshort, Thank you for this fascinating discussion and for your courteous responses. Very enjoyable read.
TCA means little to me for scalping purposes. Whatever they do with their transaction cost analysis i.e. whatever action they take will show up in the charts. I don’t care one iota about news events, either. Nor do I care what the Fed does or their words. All these things can have either a bearish or a bullish interpretation and they can also affect the markets in a bearish or bullish way. Any effect will show up in the charts. The only truth we see is what the chart says. Fundamental analysis means diddly squat to me. I just don’t care about these things. Not one little bit. For crying out loud I am scalping 1 to 8 points in ES or MES and on more volatile days maybe 12 points.
Tca may result in investors being bullish or setting bullish goals or bearish goals but the only thing I am interested in is the action they take and how it affects the market and that action and its effect will show up in the charts. I only care about “what” price does and “how” it does whatever it does. I care nothing about “why”. I already know it is because of institutions.
Look do you think GS would sell 500 ES contracts to another institution (even if they bust it up with algos into 1 or 3 lot sizes)? If so, why did they sell and why did the other buy?
What do you think drives the decision-making process of institutional (professional) investors? it is not the 5-minute chart or your doji lol
for you to think there is a scalping opportunity you must have information no one else does -- e.g. information about subsequent flow or information about the value of the security. this information is ex-ante (an expectation) and not ex-post (chart data). you cannot infer the subsequent return based upon the pattern of a candle stick because the information by and large is random. unless you are conducting a very sophisticated analysis to determine things like permanent vs transient volatility or kalman filtering etc. the information on a chart is not very useful to trading. it is possible that 50+ years ago people made money trading charts because it was a technological advantage over people that did not have those tools. but today, charts are literally at the bottom of the analysis hierarchy. you have no information that no one else does.
I'll type slowly so you may have a chance at understanding. We traders don't care about why, only what and what can be seen on the 5 minute (or time frame of preference) given the acquired skills necessary. We don't have the time or inclination to figure out the meaning of life every time we take a position, portfolio metrics and analysis are meaningless. It's a practice of recognition and reaction coupled with the strict disciplines necessary required to manage a position held from seconds to hours or days. You are trying to overlay your template of what you may be familiar with (such as it is) over something entirely different and of which you possess no understanding. Elite Mutual Fund Investor may be more to your speed.