Triangle, base, flag

Discussion in 'Technical Analysis' started by ivica, Feb 12, 2007.

  1. ivica

    ivica

    Watch ideas: for 12/24/2007

    Long:

    PTV next earning date: Jan 23, 2008
    http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/12242007ptv.jpg

    GTI next earning date: Feb 28, 2008 http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/12242007gti.jpg


    Short:
    FCH next earning date: Feb 21, 2008 http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/12242007fch.jpg

    I want to take this opportunity to wish you all a Merry Christmas, and for you who don’t celebrate a happy day off. I wish you all peace and a great time with family and friends. I will back after Christmas and I will spend time with you for the rest of the year.

    Wish you all good trading!!!

    Ivica
    ivica@ivicacharts.com
     
    #141     Dec 21, 2007
  2. ivica

    ivica

    Chart of the week
    Date:12/10/2007
    Symbol: FWLT
    Company Profile: Foster Wheeler, Ltd., through its subsidiaries, primarily provides engineering and construction services to the oil and gas, oil refining, chemical/petrochemical, pharmaceutical, environmental, power generation, and power plant operation and maintenance sectors worldwide.

    Sector: Industrial Goods
    Industry: Heavy Constructions

    TRADING PLAN
    Entry price: above: 167.75
    Stop price: under: 152.75
    Target area: 200 areas

    Chart explanation:
    FWLT forming third try triangle on the daily chart. Lots of time it will be “chart” and will bounce very strong. For now stop is under previous low and depend on setup volume and pace I will trails stop with 10sma or 20sma on the daily chart. Equal move is around $200 big number resistance area and again depend on volume and pace I will use it for target area.

    http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/01032008fwlt.jpg


    If anyone will have any question about this trade or any other setups please feel free to contact me

    Kind regards
    Ivica
     
    #142     Jan 3, 2008
  3. ivica

    ivica

    Trade example

    LINTA (Liberty Media Interactive)

    Trading plan:
    Entry price: 19.65
    Stop price: 20.10
    Target area: 18-open

    Exit price: swing trade: 18.07
    % results: 8.04
    Result: 1.58
    Risk/reward: swing: 8.04

    http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/12262007linta.jpg

    LINTA has setup at 12/27/2007 based on the weekly triangle and breakdown under 20sma support area (blue line). I used stop above $20.10 what was 50sma resistance area on the daily chart. It is important support/resistance area and I use them often for swing trades. Also it was above $20 as big number resistance area. LINTA fall very strong and fast and with first day in New Year reached first support area and fall in to oversold area on the weekly chart. That was enough reason to close trade or take partials. LINTA have more room to move down, but I will expect correction on the daily chart first.

    http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/01032008linta.jpg

    If anyone will have any question about this trade or any other setups please feel free to contact me

    Kind regards
    Ivica
     
    #143     Jan 3, 2008
  4. ivica

    ivica

    Symbol: ARM
    Company Profile: ArvinMeritor, Inc. supplies a range of integrated systems, modules, and components to the motor vehicle industry worldwide. It designs, develops, manufactures, markets, distributes, sells, services, and supports a range of products for use in commercial, specialty, and light vehicles.

    Sector: Consumer Goods

    Industry: Auto Parts

    TRADING PLAN
    Entry price: above: 11.00

    Stop price: under: 10.35
    Target area: 12-13 areas

    Chart explanation:
    ARM are forming reversal pattern on the daily chart. We can see that Pace on bounce is stronger then selling pace and also buying volume is bigger the selling volume. When we include weekly double bottom pattern I expect that ARM will continue bounce from weekly low. Also we can see on the daily chart that last several days ARM is in consolidation after bounce what is third try to break above 50sma resistance area (green line). Depend on pace after setup I will look for $12 or $13 area as target area what will be around 20sma resistance area on the weekly chart. If anyone will have any question about trading plan please feel free to contact me.

    Kind regards
    Ivica Juracic

    http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/01222008arm.jpg
     
    #144     Jan 21, 2008
  5. ivica

    ivica

    Last week trade example

    AVY (Avery Dennison Corporation)

    Trading plan: Short trade
    Date entry. 01/08/2008
    Entry price: $50.45 Stop price: $52.25
    Target area: $45.00

    Exit date. 01/18/2008
    Exit price: 45.20
    % results: 10.41
    Result: $5.25
    Risk/reward: 2.92

    Trade exmaplanation:
    AVY is good example why we tell that third try can be charm. On the daily chart we can see that setup was at 01/082008 under green bar and it was under$50.50. I used stop above 50sma ($52.25 area) with target at $45 area. Reason for target was daily equal move and number support area. That was reasonable target area and market action helped us in that mission. My main measure for success is risk reward and it was very nice on this trade.

    If anyone will have any question please feel free to contact me

    Kind regards
    Ivica Juracic

    Setup chart:
    http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/01082008avy.jpg

    Exit chart:
    http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/01222008avy.jpg
     
    #145     Jan 23, 2008
  6. ivica

    ivica

    Result of the week

    WB (Wachovia Corp.)

    Trading plan: Long trade
    Date entry. 01/23/2008
    Entry price: $34.65 Stop price: $33.90
    Target area: $37-$38 areas

    Exit date. 01/23/2008
    Exit price: 37.00
    % results: 6.78
    Result: $2.35
    Risk/reward: 3.13


    Trade exmaplanation:
    Another third try breakup. After a very weak open on Tuesday, I was looking for a reversal possibility and WB was just one of a number of reversal trades that we had. If you are interested for all results please contact me. WB consolidated under its' 200sma (red line) on the 15 min chart. We can also see that the bounce from lows was strong and after a midday consolidation and a good market situation, it was a nice candidate for a 15 min continuation. On the third try WB broke up and the initial target was $37 area but after a strong break up, strong buying pace and larger volume, I expected to see more than the equal move resistance area. Because of that it is always important to follow pace and volume and compare them with past action
    If anyone will have any question please feel free to contact me

    Kind regards
    Ivica Juracic
    Setup chart:
    http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/01232008wb.jpg

    Exit chart:
    http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/01282008wb.jpg
     
    #146     Jan 31, 2008
  7. ivica

    ivica

    Chart of the week

    Date: 02/11/2008
    Symbol: EBAY

    Company Profile: eBay, Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides online marketplaces for the sale of goods and services, online payments services, and online communication offerings to a diverse community of individuals and businesses in the United States and internationally..

    Sector: Services

    Industry: Catalog & Mail order houses

    TRADING PLAN
    Entry price: above: $28.20

    Stop price: under: $27.50
    Target area: $30 areas

    Chart explanation:
    On the daily chart we can see that EBAY bounced form daily double bottom patter. Volume increase and was higher on bounce from low and also we can see that during consolidation (last days) volume decrease. That is what we like to see during consolidation. It is important to follow market action because I don’t think that EBAY will make it without market support and that mean if market will continue with selling pressure it will be hard for EBAY to stay in daily reversal pattern. For resistance we must pay attention on previous daily high ($29 area) and 200sma resistance area on the 60 min chart. Breakout pace and volume will be key for EBAY success.

    http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/02112008ebay.jpg

    If anyone will have any question please feel free to contact me

    Kind regards
    Ivica Juracic
     
    #147     Feb 9, 2008
  8. ivica

    ivica

    CHART OF THE WEEK

    Date: 02/19/2008
    Symbol: SNCR

    Company Profile: Synchronoss Technologies, Inc. provides multi-channel transaction management solutions to the communications services and digital content marketplaces primarily in North America.

    Sector: Technology

    Industry: Applocation Software

    TRADING PLAN
    Entry price: under $18.35

    Stop price: above $19.50
    Target area: $15 areas

    Chart explanation:
    First what we can see on SNCR daily and weekly charts is down trend. On the daily chart trying to break triangle pattern what is at same time weekly continuation pattern. I will look for trend continuation and next strong support area is $15 as whole number support area. For trade success it is important that SNCR stay under 10sma on the daily chart and I will trail stop with it. Also we must pay attention on breakdown volume and pace what will tell us about target expectation. If anyone will have any question during trade or before setup please feel free to contact me.

    http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/02192008sncr.jpg

    Kind regards
    Ivica Juracic
     
    #148     Feb 18, 2008
  9. ivica

    ivica

    Result of the week

    CRL (Charles River Laboratories International Inc.)

    Trading plan: Short trade
    Date entry. 02/13/2008
    Entry price: $60.95 Stop price: $61.50
    Target area: $60-59.50 areas

    Exit date. 02/13/2008
    Exit price: 59.60
    % results: 2.21
    Result: $1.35
    Risk/reward: 2.45

    Trade exmaplanation:
    Reason for CRL short trade was bull trap what we can see on the chart. With other words at 02/13/2008 CRL open was under 02/12/2008 close. Since CRL was closed near higher at 02/12/2008 next day open brought long trades in trap and that is always good short opportunity. On bull trap trade setup is under 5 min low and stop is above high at setup time. Of course that is generally because other factors like support areas on all time frames and size of 5 min bar. If 5 min bar will be extended I will continua to watch chart because traps have nice tendency for continuations and CRL is good example for that. We took when 60 min triangle was broken, also it was good for swing trade, and reason why we used it for day trade was nice reward and uncertainly market moment. For me risk/reward is main success measure and I think CRL was in line with it.

    If anyone will have any comment or question please feel free to contact me.

    Kind regards
    Ivica Juracic

    Setup chart:
    http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/02132008crl.jpg

    Exit chart:
    http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/02192008crl.jpg
     
    #149     Feb 19, 2008
  10. ivica

    ivica

    Position trade


    Symbol: ATG


    Company Profile:
    AGL Resources, Inc., an energy services holding company, engages in the distribution of natural gas primarily in Florida, Georgia, Maryland, New Jersey, Tennessee, and Virginia. It operates in four segments: Distribution Operations, Retail Energy Operations, Wholesale Services, and Energy Investments.
    Sector: Consumer Goods

    Industry: Utilities

    Trading Strategy:
    Last several months ATG consolidate at 50sma monthly support area with breakdown tendency. After reversal from highs ATG lost monthly uptrend and I will look for equal move target area. For that possibility it is important that ATG break under 50sma monthly (200sma weekly) support area and as trailing stop I will use 10sma monthly resistance area. For now entry area is around $35.50-$35 support area what is under 50sma support area (green line on the monthly charts). If anyone will have any question please feel free to contact me.

    Kind regards
    Ivica Juracic

    http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/02192008atg.jpg

    http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/02192008atgweekly.jpg
     
    #150     Feb 23, 2008