Is there any reliable way to predict if a day would be trendy or merely rangebound sideways price action. ADX/DMI are not leading enough.
Price Action! But seriously... if we could predict this, we could also predict the direction.... It's not possible I believe, but it would make things a lot easier.
Exactly.... it's not possible, that is why you should be confused. It's not possible That's the point. We have to wait to see what is going to happen.
I think there is a saying that topping markets show small daily ranges and bottoming graphs have big ranges, but that's all. Although I do not even know if it is true or the opposite way around.
When you trade in the direction of the next larger time frame, there are better odds that your time frame will trend. If you trade a retracement, your time frame will probably swing more.
It depends, of course, on how you measure "trendy or merely range bound sideways price action." I personally measure it after the fact. But I know from experience that my measure indicates that 73% of all price action is "sideways." Now the question is...how do you maximize your gains given that fact?
I would say range bound means .5% of the index values. For SP500 Futures it should be around 5-6 points currently. That makes it hard to trade especially if the moves are sudden or jagged slow bumpy action. Lots of whipsaws, those are the markets to avoid and save high readings on the blood pressure.
Again. what's you're periodicity? 5-6 points on a daily measure is one thing....do you trade on that? Or are 2-3 ticks on 1 min bar enough for you to make a living? many questions .... many right answers. In my world....the more "slow bumpy action...with lot's of whipsaws," the better. In fact, I'm praying the NYSE extends trading (at least) by 2 extra hours per day.
CNMS, are you just saying for example that if you use a 10 min. chart to identify a trend and your long and you see that the 60 min. is also showing long signals then there is a greater chance that your 10 min time frame will trend? I just want to make sure you werent explaing a different concept. Thank you