Trending and trading

Discussion in 'Index Futures' started by cpo, Sep 8, 2002.

  1. cpo

    cpo Guest

    Dear brethren:

    A few days ago I experienced what I would call an existential reflection as a trader. I was thinking about the art of speculation and what would be the speculator's most important secret. The answer that came to my mind was: pure and simple trend following.

    The speculator has a trend, he has a trade.

    The speculator doesn't have a trend, he has no trade.

    The market is trending, he gets in.

    The market is trendless, he gets out.

    The market is trending, he gets in.

    The market is trendless, he gets out.

    In your experience, do you think a speculator has anything else to do with his trading?

  2. tntneo

    tntneo Moderator

    trading is not only about trends.

    in fact it's possible to choose :
    are you a trend trader or a range trader ?

    if you are a trend trader what you are saying is true. but only then.

    and there is specialist games and liquidity trading and other animals.
    so I would not limit trading to what you describe.

    however, to trade you need just one style, so then you are right.

    but did your introspection revealed a way to enter soon enough and at a good price or did you go further ?
    and also, in what time frame do you look at the trend.
    there are many questions left before you can proceed with your 'discovery'...

    I am just kidding.
    I remember when I finally understood what a trend meant and why many trading styles required to really understand this basic principle. So I would not dismiss the obvious simplicity of what you are saying. sometimes it's good to remind oneself that things are not always that complicated.

  3. cpo

    cpo Guest

    :D :D :D

    You crack me up tntneo.

    Actually I came up with that introspection out of observing these boards. When the market is trending everybody seems to be happy and cheerful. When the market is trendless, general discontentment can be noticed and a lot of quarrels show up. So, it was just a guess... :)

  4. tntneo

    tntneo Moderator

    cpo, you asked for it ! hehe...

    it is common to say the market is trending only a minority of the time.
    I understand that, but what I think is more important is this : there is almost always an active trending time frame.
    periods of totally trend less markets are rarer than most would believe.

    however I agree with your previous post : action last week did bother many. it was a real trendless action beside the original down thrust.

    but you need to push thinking further if this thread is to go anywhere I guess.

  5. cpo

    cpo Guest

    I won't go further my friend. In my experience that's exactly what I feel: if the market is trending, all I have to do is to pull the trigger. If the market is not trending, all I have to do is to stay out. For I am the last person on earth to have the power to predict the next move of the market. :)

  6. cpo,

    Just buy 100,000 e-mini contracts and you can safely predict you will move the market up.

  7. cpo you have made a very valid observation re: the mood of the board when not trending. I noticed that August "seemed" very nasty around here, as compared to July. July trended, August didn't.
  8. cpo

    cpo Guest

    :p Depending on who will take the other side, it may be a bad deal. :)
  9. cpo

    cpo Guest


    If you observe deep further, the fellows around here who claim to be consistent winners just disappear when the market is trendless. I would bet they take the opportunity to go to the beach, travel or just rest. :)