Trading is not subjective when done with TA. These markers appear on every single chart, on every single fractal, every single day, in every single market. The only difference is how much the trader wishes to risk on this event. Maybe Surf, you just don't have the eyes. You would not be the first, and certainly not the last.
Below looks like an edit added to the original post: "The true tell or smoking gun is neither appear to be living the lifestyle or gathering the accolades/fame such a discovery would warrant. I think jack logic claims to have been no Images for the noble pride as a result of his work. However independent research can't verify this in any way" "tells? Smoking guns? The Conventional Wisdom of the financial industry precludes anyone understanding markets. Since these people have such standards, how could they see or understand anything they could not focus their microspopes ot telescopes upon? You can believe that someone who is a successful trader and who understands markets, can understand my oreintation to just what the market's offer really is. You are just getting the "glimmer" that work has been done. In general, "reearch" in the financial industry has been a consumate collective failure. NSF, for its part, has thrown money down a rathole. A Lo at tech, thought he looked at the 10 or 12 common patterns. a conclusion was they they occurred on average in a five year period, a bout 5 to 7 times. Look at DBPhoenix. He could not draw a LTL. The principles of trend monitoring and analysis are totally foreign to you even though some were stated in 1790. 90 years ago the hypthesis set of the price volume relationship was fully articulated. It is truly a fucking laugh to walk into a major financial entity and trade live with real money. They are not a thick as you are but they are really fucked up mentally. Speaking locally and just the run of the mill buying a yacht on a 100% secured loan form a county bank (Fairfield County Bank and Trust in Greenwich , Conn a small coastal community), they couldn't "get it" when I traded the collateral for the last 6 months of a 2 year principal only loan using consecutive B's on the NYSE (Bullard and Bulluva, for example). These loan artists transferred more value in stocks back to my trading account than I placed as collateral two years before. In effect I got a free sailboat and sailed it only paying interest. Did the Fairfield county Bank and trust do any research? No, they didn't even see the humor of my trading consecutive B's to more than double the value of the sailboat. The financial industry is in the dark about how markets work and how money is made trading. An 80% ROI in commodities is two days trading. Trading stocks is 100 turns a year @ 10% a turn by having 6 months experience. Here is a fifth grader test. Look at three pairs of up/downs in price. See if you see an up trend in three moves and a down trend of three moves. Do you see the EIGHT volume moves in that period? From this, explain why A. Lo keeps fucking up at MIT. Fifth graders can easily explain what is going on within two hours of first seeing the markets. Refer to the Traderzones posts where we all found out he only sees up downs. And where he saw 17 trades called a day in advance and amajor turn called within 5 to 7 minutes a day ahead. If you believe research did not independently verify everything we have posted, then you are very mediocre at finding anything out. This is not Covle level stuff. Look at the three sheets I posted and look at Covel's index. There is no overlap of references. You and he do not know shit about anything. Covel is such a jerk he quotes people who make 20% a year. In commodities trading 20% profits comes before the Dr. Pepper am break (10, 2 4). All you are doing is explaining to everyone that you are a very dumb fuck.
Thank you for making the essential points of trading. In The Predictors", Bass relates how the quants are doing their "daily" trade to check out their "quant based system". He tells of how they go to market at5 the same time every afternoon. they enter, get their pant taken offf and they exit. wwhat was going on? Everyone knew when they came to market, everyone was sitting there, everyone took thier trades and made money as they lost money. Bass states they figured it out finally. what they figured out was tat everyone was waiting for them watching them and screwing them. About this time in the bbok's narrative, Bass reveals that the quant's did not know what BBid and BAsk were. The book actually was published. People actually bought the book. This book ranks as almost as humorous as Derman's or Covel's. All three are tradegies, as well. So how did all these authors and their subjectsget to fit into the surfer blindness category? We have to look at one equation: Perception (100%) = Sensing (10%) + inference (90%). Surf has never seen the market according to his posting over the years. Simple example: he says trends do not exist. now the big element: inference. inference is a long term memory characteristic. If you can read words on a screen you have "inference" for those words. there are several parts: spelling, sound; definitiion; usage; etc etc.... you have long term memory locatd in many places and you have the plumbing to connect the pieces. Surf has no trading or market inference locations in his mind. He has no plumbing either. so what happens when he is looking at something that is market oriented? He senses the screen and is effectively blind. nothing pops up form his long term memory that gives him something to add so he could have perceptioin. Take his word incredulous when describing something I do like driving a car. If he senses "me" there is no inference in his mind regarding the three moves of every trend, the FTT of the trend, the overlap that follows and the parallelogram that contain all trends on all fractals ETC,,,, ETC... ETC.... I have 350 file folders of illustrations for my five books. In each there is a SET of illustrations. surf perceives NOTHIG. He has zero inference regarding trading and markets. Why? the reason is that he did not learn. learning comes down to drills. Drills set up images in the mind that, while sleeping, get combined into long term memory from short term memory. repitition of something sensed can accumulate into long term memory. Imagine a sensingas a 3 x 5 card. On the card is a ballpoint pen dot. these two ares represent the unconscious and the concious sensing. the ratio is 10,000 to 20,000,000 in parts. 10,000 is the conscious part. As you sleep both records, conscious and unconscious, are merged into long term memory. I have trade fro 53 years in the same manner. Buying a sailboat (US 122 Kings Cruiser built in Gothemberg, Sweden and bought from the treasurer of Yachting Magazine), racing for years with the Greenwich crowd of sailors was a chicken feed level of toy. Being asked to do a new formula for handicapping the NYYC members was just a courtesy. In trading, having inference fully differentiated is EVERYTHING. Being fully differentiated means that everything you see on a super designed set of screen panes has a matching inference component for perception within a few milliseconds every glance you make of this sophisticated screen set of panes.\ surfer is permanently fucked. his mind is senselessly all mixed up by the bullshit he is drawn to every day of his life. He made zillions of decisions to fill his mind with what he chose. surfer is permanently fucked. Anyone can become fully differentiated by doing the process work of learning how markets work. That all is public information. Every drill required has been posted. Thousands of examples have been provided. Everyone had the cice of fucking up their minds or not fucking up their minds. It is NOT a reversable process. Does anyone think that sufer will ever see R2R as an oscillation of volume? Shit no!!!!! LOL......
A cycle of the p,V relation where volume leads price involves six moves of price and 8 moves of volume. For trading stocks, this shows up a scoring using 8 values. On this chart at the bottom you can fillin next to each line its value at that ime. In trading stocks long, you watch the short trend come to an end and you enter long for 3 of the 8 parts of the cycle. this illustration is the pattern for a short followed by a long. Say surfer looks at this will he say the same descriptive word that Covel said ("Gibberish"). I was delighted by Covel's repsonse. Here is the one page hand drawn illustration that the scores can be added to at each line coming to the bottom. think about the time after 1957 when the cycle was divided into 8 parts and each had a score that "counted". O'Neill was famous for founding IBD from his trading profits. He also was so keen on institutional "accumulation" and "distribution", the A/D of scoring. think of all the peop[le who over the years passed up scoring stocks to get the order of events of position trading stocks. Look at the time line on the three goodboy sheeets where all those people recognized how trend monitoring and analysis worked. this attachment is a one pager for making money by knowing what must come next from the order of events. you have to have "inference" to be able to percieve this. See if you have the "beef".
Yes. You are 100% correct. I made enough in 2008- 2009 not to have to worry about anything. Those edges stopped working and I have not found anything comparable since. Fortunately, I don't care, but am still looking for the challenge of it.
Here is a way to trade using volume as a leading indicator of price on 30 minute charts. A qualtiy universe is required; use O'Neill's EPS and RS percentiles. Also review the Trader666 screwup P&L for 24,000 trades. He did not use correct signals for DU>>>FRV nor Peaking occurring. These two handicaps he has and not selecting a high beta universe reult in statisitcal insignificant test results. As we see in a post by surfer, he is currently challenged after a period of luck.
The markets were fairly easy to trade in 2008-2009, and anyone with real size that did not get greedy would be retired now. I can see this and I am a lowly chartist. You are looking for an automated golden goose based on maths that would put together an algo that "learns". I don't think that can be done because you are attempting to apply cold logic to an inherently illogical process. Market sentiment is the only consistent way to trade markets. When the BOJ intervened, I caught that move because there was a violent change in the fractal I was on at the eight oclock bar. But really, somebody knew something at the six oclock. All very plain on my chart. Of course you will say that it is hindsight, and that is okay. I have grown past the need to make calls. I just want the cash now. Prestige can very rapidly turn to notoriety, so Im good on that. The BOJ intervention probably pissed a lot of people off in the quant labs, but chartists had been watching people in the know build a position all day to the point where it began to tip the channel right before the big punch. A chartist on any fractal other than weekly and with the correct skill set saw this, did you?