Trendfollowers: When oh when are we going to start making some $$$?

Discussion in 'Trading' started by Ash1972, Jun 15, 2010.

  1. Ash1972

    Ash1972

    What do you mean by 'avoided'? They should have been shorting in 00-02 and 08 and making a lot of money.

    Could I ask you what the backtested mean and standard deviation of these systems are over the last 30 years?
     
    #21     Jun 15, 2010
  2. What I laid out is a 100% systematic approach based purely on technical indicators (price and a single momentum indicator) and money management algorithms.

    It is even fully programmed as well.
     
    #22     Jun 15, 2010
  3. sorry but this is bollocks. Trend following systems have outperformed every other strategy in 2008 alone by a huge lead. Do a simple google search, there were published reports of the largest trend followers and their performance numbers.

    Almost every trend following strategy on equity markets would have gotten you onto a long position in May 2009 and this trend was virtually unbroken until Jan/Feb 2010. What are you talking about?

    I did not get stopped out of almost any of the equity positions that my system took.

     
    #23     Jun 15, 2010
  4. NoDoji

    NoDoji

    I've a question for day trading trend followers whose trading instrument is ES or a stock that matched the all-day uptrend of ES today:

    Did any of you go long between 9:30am and 10:30am and either A) remain in the trade until the close, B) add to the position on each pullback, or C) take off part of the position at each new high and add back again on each pullback?

    I've always found it difficult to stay in a full day trend like this, and instead I often look for reversal signals (and end up catching small moves), or trading with the trend in and out, but missing several of the legs. I look back end of day and realize think how much more profitable it would've been to ride the trend all day using one of the methods above.

    I've yet to come across a trader who actually pulls it off and has live calls or a trading blotter to back it up.

    Is it psychologically impossible or are there trend-followers here who have mastered it?
     
    #24     Jun 15, 2010
  5. Ash1972

    Ash1972

    2008, yes. Trend following funds outperformed everyone.

    2009, no. Diversified futures trend following programs were almost all caught out by the choppy nature of the uptrend. It wasn't a typical bull market - the shape wasn't quite right.
     
    #25     Jun 15, 2010
  6. i'm a trend follower... and made sererious money in 2009 unlike most trend followers at least the "official" ones on hedge funds...

    2010 sos far has been pretty good to... mostrly due to sugar and the strength of the dollar...

    i guess it depends from trend follower to trend follower if you make money or not... big guys like hedge funds diversify through a lot more markets than i do so it may be a reason they are not up as much... differences from trend followers usually come down to differente portfolio allocations

    since most CTA's are overly exposed to commodities, and a lot diversified in those, commodities indeed were very choppy in 2009... so i guess that would be a reason for the underperformance of CTA's in 2009 ...
     
    #26     Jun 15, 2010
  7.  
    #27     Jun 15, 2010
  8. NoDoji

    NoDoji

    This is key. I, as well as the traders with whom I'm in daily communication, tend to sometimes exit profitable trades too soon when NO EXIT SIGNAL has yet set up. It's human nature, in an environment where time can take away gains, to grab the gains at the first sign of reversal.

    If you catch a trend early, I think it's easier to stay in the trade; but if you enter later on, trade micromanagement becomes a serious obstacle and can easily override true signals as my late day boredom-induced sim trade today demonstrated: http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=64965&perpage=10&pagenumber=8656

    Jack, I'm very pleased to see that you're still alive. A thread this weekend (since removed) proclaimed your death at age 81. If it wasn't for the unusual age they posted, I would've been rather concerned :)
     
    #28     Jun 15, 2010
  9. These are computer generated ES trades from today taken based on the criteria I listed earlier.
    The ES didn't stay in the trade all day but the next chart I will post did, the S&P Midcap 400.
     
    #29     Jun 15, 2010
  10. Here is the S&P Midcap 400 chart from today. It also shows the trades from Friday.
    Again, these trades are computer generated and objectively executed based on the criteria I posted earlier.
     
    #30     Jun 15, 2010