Simple, I've read Spyders and Jack's threads regarding how they view their chart and the markets. I've talked to people that trade their methods with an open mind. I even attended their get together in Vegas so I could get a better handle on the concepts. I don't have a closed mind. I completely understand that there can always be morsels of quality information in everyones methods. After reviewing what they do I understand what they are looking for, their triggers and their targets. I just find it more detailed than I personally need to trade. Trading their charts and environments require more focus than I am willing to put into it. I can see where it can be successfully applied but it requires a different mind set than what I've trained myself to do. There are many vastly different edges and ways to profit in these markets and our individual tasks are to find a particular method that is consistently profitable, fits our style and time frame for trading and can be self validated.
Just because you are incapable of testing methods that aren't in the realm of (1+1 or 2+2) doesn't mean the rest of us are afflicted the same way. Why won't you trade with me and prove me a fraud toothless?
Why is it that when I hear "FrothLogic" I think of the words "Pathological Liar, Charlatan, Clown, Fraud, Crook, BS artist..."? I wonder?
absolutely, and I read. However, what they did was very inaccurate. First of all they did not use daily data (butter production in Bangladesh was probably not updated daily). So, take a look how many samples they used to make up their correlation profile. That's laughable, 11 observation points. Secondly it does not have predictive power but simply showed how those 2 variables correlated over the same observation period, two very different concepts. At least thats what I see when I glanced over the setup, but maybe they lagged one time series, which I may have overlooked. I am a very strong believer in statistical tests and probabilities. However, I take the discretion to override a model if something absolutely does not make sense to me, but very rarely. If you show me how butter production has predictive power in the short term and over at least 2000-3000 observations during different business cycles then I am very happy to look into it, no matter what others think of the logical relationship.
Probably because you are a clueless moron. Why won't you trade me and prove me a fraud . . . why, because you can't prove what isn't true.
Hmm, I agree on some points and strongly disagree on others. a) the definition of curve fitting was exactly my point. If you show that a statistical test is robust (and now we can discuss what robust means, but I mentioned how I understand it in my previous post) then I have confidence in the validity of the test. b) You are right, everyone can show a fantastic back tested result. Question is, does it hold up to out of sample tests, and with out of sample I mean different time periods, not different assets. I strongly disagree with your blanket statement "No system can be robust unless every market is traded in the EXACT SAME WAY." Also your definitions of "trend system" are taken out of thin air. If I tested a trend system on currencies and it works well going forward, and that for a long period of time, while it did not back tested well nor performed well going forward on, lets say, crude contracts then I am very happy to apply my system to currencies and extract alpha. I think you may still be confused about curve fitting. Curve fitting applies to the way you test, not on which data you test. PS.: I never said my asset selection's purpose is to select those assets which I believe will trend. I said that my selection process's purpose is to only trade those assets that trend SIGNIFICANTLY WHEN they trend. Of course can it happen that an asset that exhibited very poor trending properties will change its dynamics. Thats why I employ a rotational model which includes or excludes assets considered for position taking.
I agree with you, that paper is good for laughs - hence it's name, all I'm trying to illustrate is that you definitely need to be aware of and always question any findings. Many quant traders formulate a theory and then program and test the daylights out of it, but it is originally based on a market theory/observation. This does not preclude the existence of curve fitting based on data mining either, but it is waaaaaay better than throwing massive computing power at the data to sieve for spurious patterns. Then again, mining can uncover relationships you never thought of. It is a fine balancing act. But I'm sure you know this, it is more for the benefit of the OP.
But this is ONLY a 16 year old book and absolutely nothing new has been discovered since then surely . . . right? 16 years ago a computer with 512meg of RAM was huge. (being facetious)
LOL, unlike you asswipe, no-one in this thread (apart from you and your ass chum BoWo, you know, him being the world's greatest system and pairs trader - maybe Pears trader is more appropriate), has made any assertions about being a BSD, hence we don't need to prove shit to you jack or anyone else. You however with your perfect trades, and ERGs (LMAO), have over the years behaved like the emperor of ET, like you know it all and that you have the one true method, without ever, EVER proving anything, and as soon as anyone questions anything you commence the ad hominem attacks and never EVER answer the questions. You should go into politics, seriously, you spin shit like there's no tomorrow. So, since you're the mofo who thinks themselves Mr BSD-trader, how about you proves us all wrong by posting live intraday trades for a month? No? I didn't think so dickless. Why is it that when I hear "FrothLogic" I think of the words "Pathological Liar, Charlatan, Clown, Fraud, Crook, BS artist..."? I wonder?