Trendfollowers: When oh when are we going to start making some $$$?

Prediction is futile. That is our mantra. BUT after 18 months or so of treading water I'm sure we're all asking the same question!

 

If you're not making money from this market, I pity you. You need to go get a day job.

 

Well, that's one person who's clearly NOT a trendfollower! Tell me, did you make money during the crash of 2008? I know you'll say yes, so I can only conclude that since you know exactly when markets switch from trending to rangebound and back again, you are a smarter man than me.

I have a day job, thank you. Trendfollowing is 100% automated and makes trading decisions based on end of day data only.

 

then you have a huge issue with your code. Markets are increadibly trending. Obviously major turning points such as 8/9/10 of June are base building times but as you indicated you trade on daily frequencies, so I seriously dont understand what issue you are having with lack of trendiness. How stronger could a trend be all the way from March last year until April of this year? If you believe it does not carry on like this then I would fully agree with you.

 

For you to make this comment in this manner makes me wonder if you are not one of another pretender.
Why put someone down?
Their style may not be quite right for this market.

 

What markets are you looking at?

There have been some amazing trends in FX, Commodities and fixed income over the last few months on a daily chart?

 

I had paper losses in 2008. I was a buy and holder.

So what's the trend? Are we going up to new highs, or are we in bear market mode?

 

Did you miss a few trends like GC and USD?

 

I dont know, and that is why I said I think we currently have reached a possible turning point. For that reason I am 80% in cash. The other 20% is in long stocks, long VXX. I currently see more upside judging from the continued put buying that has been going on but any second this could turn around with another fist in the face from Europe. So, admittedly its pretty hard to judge where the train is going. If you dont know the best way ALWAYS is to be on the sidelines. Very simple.

 

My question was aimed at systematic trend following traders. Most modern trend following systems make their real money from big directional market moves (e.g. 2008 crash, 2007 oil price spike) and use smaller trends to stay afloat whilst there are no big ones.

The problem with the equities bull run from Mar09 onwards was that it was very choppy; hence, most trend following systems kept getting in and out too often, thus ultimately getting whipsawed.