I'm trying to set a mechanical trading system and I would appreciate feedback on Trend Trigger Factors. I've been testing a 15 day TTF that seems to be reliable, does someone know a better time frame? I've decided to go mechanical because I have realized that I'm not smart enough to trade based on my predictions. Thanks! J Highland Connecticut, USA
I ran TTF over a few of my favorite stocks (didn't do any really serious backtesting), and I really didn't like the results of using -100 and 100 as the trigger threshold per the magazine article (it seems to generate buy and sell suggestions that any bonehead with a chart would think to be stupid).
^^^^^^^ Yes; dont trade on ''my predictions'', the best discretionary traders dont trade on market predictions either. May want to study trends more than trend trigger factor and ; an average of 15 days or less may work, but that may be on the small size also, for an average.
=============== JnHighland; Perhaps I am more negative on ''trend trigger'' because i really dont understand exactly how they figure it, so dont know if it is being figured correctly and probably am very used old habit of 50 day moving average, and related. And even when charting services misfigure 50 day moving average; can figure it real close any way, and it underlines or overlines price. And I am not making a prediction, but i know now more about your trading experience than I did this mourning; so quote ''an average of 15 days or less may work'' unquote ,is still a good probablilty statement for you. My last trade was 7 days time and thats fine, but when trend time is increased; commissions are decreased slippage is decreased, noise is decreased. Good question , & trends are a favorite study subject. The plans of the diligent tend only to advantage- Solomon,trader king