I know what they are trying to say, but it just dosen't make much sense to me buddy. I mean when the circus comes and you don't distribute your peanuts, then the only thing to do when it leaves town is to clean up the elaphant shit! Ducks will just keep eating until they explode, they don't really go away! Oh but the noise and pace definately do speed up right before she blows-off... hmmmm there is a light bulb going on now Thankyou for showing me the light buddy! PEACE and good trading, Commisso
Commisso: What about the quiet times during which the circus is away from town. Should we just wait patiently and grow peanuts until it approaches again? Or have a rest? By the way, where is darkhorse? cpo
Darkhorse bounced I suppose... Well the quiet times is when you want to be patient of course, but always be ready to pounce on opportunity should it suddenly arise! There is no better suited arena for the saying "The quiet before the storm...." As always PEACE and good trading my friend, Commisso
Chance is always powerful. Let your hook always be cast; in the pool where you least expect it, there will be fish. Ovid A window of opportunity won't open itself. Dave Weinbaum Commisso: As we are on the subject of trend riding, I would like to know: does a trader ever know he is about to ride a big trend? I mean, it would appear that he has to take the risk and let the trade play itself out. It could be a big winner or just one more loser. If the trader took every trade he would be ready to benefit from every opportunity. PEACE and good trading, my friend. cpo
I can't speak for everybody of course but I never know. For me it is always just a leap in the dark. You see the set-up, you feel the set-up and you strike! You then proceed to let the sacred geometry of chance lead her dance! Really nothing more to it for me. You guess based upon an imperfect understanding and whatever may come will be here soon enough... I just got done my last two journal entries, would you like to see them? PEACE and good trading, Commisso
OK I just tried to upload them here, but the file is too big soooooooo i will just edit them and tae out all but the 2-min chart and then upload them! gimee 2 mins!
fuck it bro... i cut it waaaaaay down and it is still too big! email me and then i will reply and attach the files!
Ok, let's get down to brass tacks... You are all looking for a way to determine when to enter/exit a trend, and a way to determine if that trend is viable. Let me tell you, using traditional indicators is NOT the way to go, unless you modify them a bit. I've been studying chaos theory, non-linear equations, and signal analysis for a while now, and I took what John Ehlers has done, reworked most of the code, and created new indicators based on traditional indicators (DMI, ADX, RSI, Triple MA, Volatility Bands), as well as some of my own proprietary design (Signal-To-Noise Ratio, a Stochastics that doesn't stick at the extremes during trends, etc.). All the indicators automatically adjust to market parameters, so no optimization is necessary (we use TradeStation, which can literally take years to optimize a sophisticated trading system, so I had to find a way to make the indicators optimize on-the-fly). I can tell you that determining when to get into a trend and out of a trend is easy...you can even do it before the trend 'gathers steam' by anticipating the indicators, if you're willing to put up with a few small whipsaw trades. Getting out is even easier, the indicators signal to get out right before the trend ends. Thus, you're not chasing the markets. I'm currently creating a trading system based upon my work (I call it the HighTech trading system). It's based upon the premise that the market can be in one of two phases, trending or consolidation. The indicators clearly delineate what phase the market is in. I don't like ambiguity where money is concerned. I've got the code finished for the trending portion of the system. In informal walk-forward testing, the largest single-trade drawdown is 10 points (due to a price shock on a report day; I'll be programming in the report days, so the system isn't holding any positions (or is only holding positions covered with options) right before reports, to prevent this from happening). The largest single-trade runup is 84 points over two and a half days, without pyramiding (Since doing the walk-forward testing, I've designed the system so each new day that the trend is still intact, it will pyramid). So, the trending phase of the market is easy. The trouble I'm having is with the consolidation phase trades, those small 5 or 6 point moves. How can I determine if a consolidation phase move will actually result in a move large enough to capitalize upon (5-6 points)? How do I keep out of the smaller moves (i.e.: prevent those little whipsaws that eat up your equity over time)? Or should I forego trying to trade in consolidation phases at all, and be content with the large equity run-ups from the trending phase? That would leave a lot of money on the table, but would reduce the standard risk deviation. Any ideas or trading methods for consolidation phase markets would be greatly appreciated. Please email me with your ideas at DarrenBrothers@yahoo.com since I don't get the chance very often to check out this discussion website. Thanks