Just a head's up - they have a huge ad in this months Active Trader. Might want to read this thread, as well as this one: http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=7441&highlight=trend+reflection :eek: :eek:
I bought the system in '99 and had Tom Reavis traded it for 2 years. Its a total scam. I started with 50k and it ended with 5k. Tom was trying to get me to deposit more money. I also spoke to the President of Trend Reflections. He's a total bullshitter too. SAVE YOUR MONEY! RUN AWAY FROM THIS. YOU WILL LOSE MONEY. IF YOU ARE IN IT NOW, CUT YOUR LOSSES. IT IS IMPOSSIBLE FOR YOU TO MAKE MONEY WITH THIS. DON'T LET TOM SUCK YOU IN.
Btw, the president of Trend Reflections told me that Tom Reavis was a terrible broker and that he was the cause of my account experiencing the big drawdown. He claims that while my account lost 90%, his account was up. WTF??
".....but where are the CUSTOMERS' yachts?" The previous post really tells you everything you need to know. Jessie
I used TR(both..Tom and Trend reflection) and the results were very poor. Which one was the problem I don't know, but the broker just executes the trades the system generates and that is what he did! So either he does or doesn't, and as long as he is then the system is the problem if it is crapping out. I have the Peak series of programs and understand that they have reoptimized under different program names since I traded it. Maybe you need to get the newest version while it is still fresh from reprogramming, trade it for 1 yr then wait for the next version. I'll get to my opinion....Trend Reflection is a pass for me! I have gone back and looked at the results of what I have and had I kept at it I would be broke.
not sure about buying systems but a tip for one you have made is to. 1) calculate its average drawdown. 2) note its maximum drawdown. 3) note a performance figure that is a minimum. Dont start trading it until you are around 1). Stop trading it if 2) or 3) are breached by some margin. So for example one intraday strategy I am waiting to trade has the following characteristics: 1) 5-15% 2) 20% 3) minimum net profit per year 20% So I am waiting for 1) to happen (which is a bugger because it has been performing well recently !). And I know when to stop and reevaluate - when it loses > 20% or returns less than 20% in a year. By the way always think about statistical significance when you are backtesting. In simple terms it is laughable that some "serious" system developers/resellers that post on this board show systems that have been backtested on sub 100 trades. I am constantly a victim of curve fitting even if I have tested it on over 1000 trades. Funster
The problem's not specifically that it's a mechanical system - lots of trading firms have their own mechanical systems and make tons of money. Some people have a personal bias against any black box method and there are loads of BS systems for sale in the various trading mags. But not liking a black box just because it's a black box is more based on personal opinion than anything. Nothing wrong with a mechanical system if you can validate it and if you understand that no single mechanical system will work perfectly across all securities and all timeframes. But unfortunately in this case the more basic problem is that your friend got sucked in by all the hype and the different brokers and websites that have been co-oped (probably with substantial commissions) to also sing the praises of this BS. Some checking before throwing down ten grand would have found a lot of posts here and on other boards about it being a crap. Think there was also about the CFTC sanctioning the Trend Reflection vendor a while back. Plus, when a software vendor offers to throw in a computer system (supposedly worth $2500) with your purchase you've got to wonder. Any chance your friend can get their money back?
never buy a system with out checking with futures truth.com an there is never a good reason to pay more than 3000 for a system i dont give a shit who programed it
Interesting site. But, if these systems really perform, why don't we just use them instead of putting all the time and effot forth... http://www.futurestruth.com/topten.htm#ReleaseDate
i use this gys service have no assocation with him but i like his reserch all he does is rank system proformace also eversystem i have ever trade has a 20% drawdown whick is normal. he has a great article in Active trader mag this month hope it help good luck