I determine trends by looking at the retracement depth. If the retracement is less than 50% of the impulse move, then its a trend. If the retracement is less than 62% of the impulse move, then the trend is weak. Retracements greater than 62% suggest the start of sideways action. Like wise, retracement less than 38% indicate a strong trend.
How can you say you're the only one with "enough confirmation"? By the time you have enough information, so will everyone else, and I'm sure that's the best time to fade the move. I don't know how best to say this, but you need to weigh the odds in your favor by simply front-running your analysis. You can't dick around too much. Sometimes, this will work and sometimes it won't. But with proper risk management in place, your losses should be minimal.
How do you determine where to draw retracements from? Start of the trend I presume. If so how do you determine where that is? I have my way (which I previously posted), just curious what others use.
Tight channels are more directional. It is generally best to trade such channels only in the channels direction. For instance, in tight or narrow bear channels I prefer to only short.
A trading range is just an extended PB. A PB is a temporary pause in the immediate market trend. It is usually caused by profit taking or other institutions try to make the BO fail. A pause (i.e. a PB) should not be labeled as a TR until it is 20 bars in duration. Why? Because until that time it is simply a PB with possible trend continuation. Once it gets 20 or 30 bars then the edges at as a magnet. What looks good is really not so good. For instance, say price is 25 bars into a PB. It is now in a TR. A rush to the top with big trend bars will fool a novice trader. They will think: “price is headed north” I best make haste and go long. So, they enter long. Price breaks above the top of the range and then within 5 bars heads back towards the range top and often back down in it. The novice trader gets whipsawed out of his position. He mumbles “it looked so good for a BO. I thought price was just gonna keep going up. After all 4 bulls bar rushing to the top. I just don’t get it.” Ditto for BO’s out of the bottom. Just reversed. In TRs what looks like good entries points are usually not so good. Something that looks great is not so great. Something that looks like it is going to break to the upside, it actually may not break out to the upside. In a TR probability in terms of what looks like good entries shift. Until 20 bars probability favors a resumption of the previous trend and the sideways movement is just a temporary pause in the trend usually connected to profit taking.