Trend or Range: How to Know in Advance

i say there is a trade in every bar and that's the way i trade.

 

You are a rarity then among retail traders that I know. On ET the only one I know is VSTscalper, I think was his handle.

 

the range bars i trade on are much larger than what he uses. i have about 1/4 the amount of trades per day from what i have seen of his postings. i do enter and exit within the same bar. i make 200 lose 400 and win 70%. works out to about $30 an hr. per cnt.

 

Story in every bar? Trade in every bar? Pussy talk. There are only money in every bar.

 

Good Evening Handle123,

What is the profit target and stop loss per trade?

Thank you,

 

Suppose you're really good at detecting reversals. You nail them tops and bottoms every single time. But is that enough to consistently make money? No.

You don't know if price will reverse into a tranding range and chop on you for the next 3 hours. So the question is how would you know if it will transition to a trend or a range? And it it's a trend, how do you know it won't be a weak one that will die out on you after just a few points?

On that account, does the slope and the amplitude of the price matter?

 

For reference.

 

You do know the angles depend on the axis interval widths the charting program is using.

And a different charting app will give different angles.


There was a trend strength indicator in the old days called ADX, i would guess many people still use it, was invented by Welles Wilder, it probably doesn't suffer from the above issue with using angles:

https://www.investopedia.com/articles/trading/07/adx-trend-indicator.asp

 

Always tough to get substantive convo going on here, I commend you for trying. Number one sign of a trend for me isn't new highs or new lows, those can lie too often and reverse on you fast. I look more for signs the trend is holding when tested: i.e. higher lows or lower highs. The thing I struggle with the most is knowing when you've got enough confirmation to hop on but not too much that you're near the end of the move. Any suggestions there, I'm all ears?

 

Angle alone is not of much use IMO. Better you use in conjunction with something else. Hence, I gave the angle for both channels, one for uptrend (1) and one for downtrend (2). Also Consider the slope betwen 4 and 5. Do they offer any predictive insights?

Moreover, consider the width of the channels (amplitude). I believe there's a value to be gleaned when you use them in addition to the angle of the slope.