Thought this was an interesting interview with him: http://www.futuresmag.com/2011/03/01/william-eckhardt-the-man-who-launched-1000-systems
excellent interview, really excellent interview. thank you for the link. how many times have see seen the t/a and trend denier crowd say technical analysis does not work because whether the next event in a series is up or down looks like a coin flip. FM: But isnât that the point of trend-following â that you are not predicting, just defining a trend and taking advantage of it? BE: Thatâs right. And if you look at me as a predictor instead of as a traderâas a trader I am way ahead, as a predictor I am scoring about 35%, so I am not very good as a predictor. Those are different skills. But still even with trend followers you will hear people say, âWhere do you think the market is going?â It is just human nature to try and approach this in terms of making a prediction.
That's double talk. When one enters a directional trade, they are predicting follow thru and clearly, the trend followers, stick with their prediction thru large drawdowns. surf
When a financial journalist and marketer for a multi strat fund (who has a vested interest in discrediting another strategy to promote his own) says trend following is broken, that's when you know the bottom is in! The managers marketsurfer highlights in his random sampling tend to trade trends longer term and yes, given government interventions, choppy markets, etc, they have underperformed lately. There are multiple catalysts for trends in numerous commodity markets which trend followers will be able to profit from, but that's a whole other (lengthy) discussion. Smart money recognizes that you have to have a longer time frame when investing in CTAs and is buying drawdowns in quality trend following programs now, but diversifying by managers and time frames.
probably the most important part of the interview is on page 2 when he talks about required sample sizes and degrees of freedom....I have been preaching for years about the fallacy of inferring from small sample sizes....
Well, assuming he trades eod, then yes, you're right - he predicts where the market is going for the next day. And he's predictions are maybe 51% right. The point is, he's not anticipating a change in direction. He looks at current direction, reacts to it, predicts that it won't change for at least a day, and then puts a trade.
you didn't follow the right trend follower, try this guy Dr. Wish QLD Portfolio +30.81% http://dark-liquidity.com/WishingWealth.php