follow- because if you are a big AUM trend follower, you'd only risk 1-3% of your capital on each uncorrelated trade, so you'd only have 3 trades to execute in 2009.
You make a good point - though I don't think they'd risk anywhere near 3% per trade, probably closer to 1%. How many uncorrelated trades/trends were there in 2008?
This thread is a bit of a surprise to me also. I have been trading since 1966 and haven't seen a year ( since early March) where the trends and returns were everywhere - from domestic to international. And the mutual fund industry had their best returns since 1958! I had my best year ever too, not because I was smart or lucky but because I simply followed the trend.