Ok, then--- why, when applied to stock index futures, common stat tools don't reveal that there is an exploitable trend that exists outside of randomness? You might win me over, if you can explain this. Thanks!
So knowing the past trend provides no edge? You sImply keep entering and stopping out untill you get it right? If this is the case, we agree-- because random entries would serve the same purpose. No need for TA or charts. surf
Relax, bro. MC and I are good friends--- he is just a tiny bit misguided when it comes to trends. We agree on 95% of the stuff that matters. Peace, surf
Ed Seykota, the ultimate Trend Trader, who explicitly states, "I'm a Trend Trader" in the interview, doesn't believe Trends exist? OK, I apologize for the name calling (which I don't normally do - I have a toothache actually...) and will relax now. You're not a DICK, you're not a TROLL.... Your simply, completely, BLOODY MAD!!! "Peace and Love" back at ya! P.S. This stock is not Trending Up. Don't be fooled. It's all an illusion....
Thanks for the compliment! Yes, it's an illusion. http://lmgtfy.com/?q=Ed+seykota+trends+don't+exist# "You can't know a trend until it is over. Famed trend follower Ed Seykota has said: "There is no such thing as the trend; there are countless trends, depending on the method we use to determine a trend⦠There is no way to determine the current trend, or even define what âcurrent trendâ might mean; we can only determine historical trends."
So you don't think apple has trended up in price in that chart ? What term or description would you use to describe apple's increase in price over that period ?
Ill let my mentor explain it to you: http://www.dailyspeculations.com/vic/goodboy_interview.html Been in a car for 11 hours, time for a break-- hope this clarifies. Take it easy!
Read it, he didn't sell me, the home run story was interesting but kinda weak. The man is smart and I'll bet he could design a different statistical test that could show results that supported an opposing view. Regardless what ever you call the apple chart if a trend trader was trading apple he made money regardless of the reason or the terms one used, and that's all that matters.
Victor and I have communicated over the years. Need to get him on the podcast. His brother came up on the S. Brechtel episode.
If you can find a little bit better than a random entry ... why not? Isn't that what Donchian, as a historic example, observed back over a half century ago?