Uhm, I'm not interested in reading aspirational from an Elephant murderer who ran his company into the ground. My grandpa had to pick blackberries to eat when he was growing up. Sometimes that was all they had to eat. Even, we always had food but not always what we wanted. There were a few times where we had to go gather some fruit in order to have enough, a very few times. Now, I go to Wal-Mart and can get frozen food better then what I can get at the the not cheap restrauntes. My sister got her law degree while working 2 jobs and working as a single mother. She doesn't make much more then me now and I don't have a 4 year degree but I had my own struggles. She has 100k+ debt. But, what she did was smart because if you don't have anything and no way to make anything then it makes sense to take on any amount of debt in order to get a job and a chance. This is why these degrees are in a bubble -- because there aren't enough jobs and even fewer meaningful jobs. I'd tell a young person, take on any amount of debt, you don't have anything to lose and you have everything to gain. Heck, if you don't make it -- they can't squeeze blood from a turnip now can they? My point is things aren't so bad. Man doesn't need money to be happy. My other point is that everything you think is so meaningful like the market crash -- it was a non event for most of us. The 60% rally, another non event. Think about how large the whole universe is and you begin to realize how meaningless the stock market is. This is causing you some problems because you think everything you are doing is so important: it is not. That's my point. Let me go further, the vet who treated my dog. He provided a value. When Wal-Mart takes my money for the food I buy, they provide a value and receive money in kind. My point is the guys who write about things that aren't relevant are receiving value disproportionate to their worth. Again that includes Dr. Steenbarger, who is among the 2 people I respect the most in this business. He wrote some books and a lot of people bought them. But, nobody should have because elite trading psychology just isn't relevant to the majority. Becoming an elite trader doesn't mean anything without capital to back it up. It is a dangerous idea to be driven to be the best. I am driven, no small part to reading Dr. Steenbarger's writing. You know what really got me on a successful track was understanding how to be average.
TF is crowded these days, like all manna-from-heaven strategies, because institutional investors are afraid of stocks -- they remember 2008 -- and interest rates are zero, so investors are desperate for some kind of return. That's why TF isn't working this year. I do think TFs will have a positive return over time, but I much doubt we'll ever again see the golden days of the 70s and 80s, when there was lots of dumb money in the markets, and only a few small TFs to take advantage of it.
2007 and 2008 were great years for TF. Has it suddenly become crowded in the last couple of years? Surely the 'dumb' money is piling into the stock market now after its most rapid doubling in history? Right now mutual funds' cash allocations are at an all time low. Buy the dips, anyone? And TF is by no means a panacea. How many people can stomach 50%, year long (or longer) drawdowns on the path to large returns?
Covel, I want to tell you a true story. If you read anything then you've read about how Microsoft and Bill Gates have pushed congress for more H1B visas, more foreign workers. Well, I'm going to tell you how Microsoft really works. I applied for a technical job. You have to go through several rounds of phone interviews and an in person interview. These are tough interviews and they use the information from earlier interviews to identify any weaknesses. A lot of very solid technical people give up just because the process is so challenging. They ask both the very wide and general and the very detailed. I've a strong background programming/technical. But, wait I'm getting ahead of my self, the recruiters also keep a backlog of candidates ready to roll. So, you can get cut off at any time if someone earlier in the process is cleared for hire. This is not uncommon. So, to get even to the final stages you have to get into the queue early and then make it through this really arduous process. The interview process takes about 4 to 6 months. I had applied before the market meltdown. In my first round of interviews, someone in the queue before me was cleared for hire and it ended abruptly. Some months later, I got another call. I went through the phone calls and the manager interview and I'm still proud to this day: I was cleared for hire. This job would pay $110,000 or more (with benefits). I had did without a 4 year degree what some of the best people in my field couldn't do. I got a call a few days later before we signed any papers that a candidate from Florida had been cleared for hire shortly before I was. The Florida office didn't need him and they decided to go ahead and use him for my position. They told me they really wanted to find a position for me. I could reapply in another state and would be required to go through the process all over again. My previous approval wouldn't count or I could wait. The layoffs happened and I couldn't reach any of my contacts. It is very blatant to anyone who works in the tech field what is really going on. They told me you are worth 6 figures. We've validated that and agree. But we've got so much talent that it doesn't matter. Even though, I'm still proud to have "made it". I didn't get anything for it though. And, then we have Microsoft and Bill Gates trumping and thumping their lies out there about how they need more H1B's.. how they can't find talent.
Listening to folks carp about life being unfair--is boring. Get on with and go make something happen. For starters read 'Linchpin' by Seth Godin.
Sure, but as with the stock market, a prolonged drawdown leads to investors running for the exit. Exactly the same human psychology is at work whether it's stocks or a mechanical trading system. I personally believe that trendfollowing is the best strategy that exists, and certainly the only rational one. But few people are doing it because few people can stick with it for the long haul. I relish drawdowns as a way of shaking out those who don't really belong
Somebody needs to explain why you should always be long volatility when the market has risen. I've got a short on my optimizations version of Bill's strategy at 2262.50 short 140 contracts with 2 entries of 70 contracts each. Is there any company that will just give me the hardware and space I need to expand? I heard we crossed the petaflop barrier, and I recommend taking 1 to 1000 in 5 variables which in fact is 1 petaflop or 1*10^15, a 1 and ten zeroes of possibilities. Exhaustive studies are now becoming possible.
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