Trend following system

Discussion in 'Strategy Development' started by zubr, Mar 10, 2013.

  1. zubr



    I am using a quite simple trend following system that is derived from the turtle trading strategy. I am trading on a daily basis long when the upper donchian channel (parameter: 20 days) shows a breakout, i.e. there is a new 20-day high. I am using CFDs to trade stocks, indices, currencies and commodities.

    With this system I have the following problems and hope that you can help me:

    1.During the day there may be several long entry signals generated. As my budget is limited I try to select these assets that are most promising. Up to now I am using a visual evaluation. In a day chart for the last 6 month I view the chart of the asset (with the newly entry signal). The asset that shows the most stable/continuous upward movement is my favorite as I believe that this nice upward trend will be continued. What do you think about this (quite subjective) method? Is for this visual analysis a day chart with a period of 6 months appropriate? Or should I analyze a smaller range like e.g. the last 3 month?

    2.Which chart visualization would you use the analysis from 1). Just chart lines or candles to identify trends? And why would you prefer this chart type?

    3.Are there any indicators that evaluate the trend strength which I could use for my trading strategy?

    4.Do you see any further improvements for my trading strategy to optimize the asset selection? For example a combination with MACD or MA? What else do you use for your trend following systems?

    Thank you.
  2. Humpy


    Optimise stochastics and Macd togethor on about 10 to 30 day trend
  3. ask yourself what value the indicators add to the original method (break above 20 or 55 day high). at most i would use a MA - def not a MA and MACD since the signals would be almost identical.
  4. dom993


    I think it is common practice to gauge breakouts on daily charts using a volume filter, ie. volume > 150% (or more) of 50-day average volume.

    When translating that for a signal intraday, you have to know the volume profile in an average day (hourly, in % of the total volume of the average day), using that at any time you can extrapolate the total volume expected for the day and decide if that's enough volume for the breakout to qualify.

    Of course, this might introduce some lag in deciding the breakout is valid, but any type of confirmation of a signal generally does (otherwise, it would be part of the setup definition, rather than seen as a confirmation).