A trend follower is NOT trying to pick tops or bottoms. They WAIT for a trend to form and get in. They usually get in late and get out late, but if the trend continues for a long time then they will make money. They will have a bunch of small losers and a few big winners.
kinda hard to base it on future performance,same with a trend,if i had the future trend i would trade it,have to the best with history to predict the future,thats why the brits carry umbrella's
Ok surf. When you wet your pants and scream out a SURF ALERT, what are you basing that call on ? It certainly has nothing to do with the previous price action. I mean....previous prices are hindsight right. So if a stock like WFC is a short in your mind, it certainly has nothing to do with the fact that it has run up a lot recently. I mean, who cares what it did in the past. That being said then I guess I was right, you either flip a coin or throw a dart when making a trading call.
A bunch of small losers and a few big winners? What a horrible strategy. Try and explain your post to Marketsurfer. Maybe it will sink in.
Surf, you start a new "trendfollowing sucks" thread every 2-3 months. Why not stick with the other 18 ones where you were embarrassed? BTW: As most strategies, rolling returns in trendfollowing funds are prone to mean reversion. 2008 has been a bombastic year for trendfollowers, many posting 60-80% gains before fees. I wouldn't be surprised to see 1-2 years of sub-par returns.
He sees this as an opportunity to rip on funds which were up 60 to over 100% last year, and are now down 3% this year. Kind of expect this crap from a guy like Surf. It's frightening to think that a guy like Surf actually guides people on where to invest their money.
So if someone buys the low and sells a tick higher, they make a fortune? The "fortune" is made during the period they *hold on* while the market moves significantly in their favour. Fortunes are made by holding, not by buying or selling. And for holding to be profitable, you need a trend in your favour during the holding period. Granted, it may be more profitable to "trend-anticipate" than to trend-follow. But to dismiss trends as a whole is silly. Gold went from 250 to 1050, the Euro from 0.83 to 1.60, the S&P from 1575 to 666. The fortunes were not made by top and bottom picking, but rather by holding on for the bulk of the move.
I think the issue runs deeper then this. I think these people have a trading related neopolitan complex. They need to pick the bottom/top because it makes them feel smart. They can tell all of their friend that they nailed the bottom on the ES. They bought the ES at 667 and sold it at 670. While the trend followers probably got in at 750 and still holding....
LMAO trend following finally gets the recognition it always deserved. <object width="640" height="505"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/LiE1VgWdcQM&hl=en&fs=1&color1=0x3a3a3a&color2=0x999999"></param><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"></param><param name="allowscriptaccess" value="always"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/LiE1VgWdcQM&hl=en&fs=1&color1=0x3a3a3a&color2=0x999999" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowscriptaccess="always" allowfullscreen="true" width="640" height="505"></embed></object>