Trend Following "SUPER FUND" down

Discussion in 'Wall St. News' started by marketsurfer, Apr 15, 2009.

  1. EPrado


    I read parts of it. It's tough to read a book by a guy with a huge ego problem who couldn't trade his way out of a paper bag and blown out completely twice with friends/outside money.

    Like reading a book by Jeffery Dahmer's parents on how to raise a well behaved child.
    #31     Apr 15, 2009
  2. :D :eek: :D
    #32     Apr 15, 2009
  3. EPrado


    My point exactly. The guys who have survived in the trading world over the long run are trend folllowing types. While cost averaging/fading/mean reversion strategies do work when the right people use them, it has also ending trading careers/destroyed accounts very quickly.

    I know a guy who has been trading in the pits in Chicago for years. Luckily he has a ton of family money. He absolutely loves buying as the position goes against him. Nothing makes him more happy than buying SP's at 840, 835, 830, and selling them all at 835.25 for a profit. Like he's a strategy that works....until it doesnt.

    He usually blows out his account twice a year and has to re-load.
    #33     Apr 15, 2009

  4. yes, to a point. however, that does not make it a true edge or something that is applicable to retail traders.

    i know from direct experience that option arb/marketmaking strategies blew away trend following in 2008 and continues to do so in 2009.

    remember, the public are trend followers by default. we all know happens to the public....

    #34     Apr 15, 2009
  5. The public has a long bias. I would not through them in with the trend followers traders/managers....
    #35     Apr 15, 2009
  6. asap


    the fact that a certain stock or index price have been "trending" in the past doesn't mean it will "trend" in the future.

    for instance, are you selling the SPX "negative trend" that initiated last fall? or are you buying the SPX "positive trend" that started last month? you dont know the right answer.

    that's because trends only exist in hindsight.
    #36     Apr 15, 2009
  7. Depends on what fractal you are trading...

    Monthly you might still be short and daily you might be long....
    #37     Apr 15, 2009
  8. EPrado


    Why do you always use "retail traders" as your crutch in the argument. Why can't a retail trader use a trend following strategy?

    What kind of money do these option arb guys manage? What were their returns in 2008?

    The public are not trend followers at all. If so why did the public get destroyed in 2008, and trend followers have huge gains?

    The public goes long, rarely if ever short. Trend followers are not long or short biased.

    Surf you continue to amaze me with how little you know. You should be on Letterman. They can have a segment "The man who can talk out of his ass".
    #38     Apr 15, 2009

  9. exactly.

    you need to understand, however, that trend traders on elite never lose and all have insight into the future.

    regards, surf
    #39     Apr 15, 2009
  10. EPrado


    We have an early nomination for dumbest post of 2009.

    Seriously, do you read this stuff before you post on here.
    #40     Apr 15, 2009