you must be joking!!! Pretty much ALL the funds that have a track record of 10+ years and which beat pretty much every hedge fund on this planet in terms of returns per risk unit are TREND FOLLOWING vehicles. Show me a hedge fund that made >60% returns per annum over 10 years+ other than through trend following. I show you at least a dozen trend following funds.
another chicken vs egg et argument, the rooster,think outside of the box,both systems work,combine them
one would need to know how many "trend following" funds failed miserably by picking the wrong direction before surviorship biased statements like this make any sense. these guys have have tremendous drawdowns, just like buy/sell and hope ( which is exactly what trend following is) --- some make it, most don't. extrapolating that its a viable strategy for traders to use based on a few successes is a stretch to say the least. surf
beg to strongly disagree. 1) so hedge funds did not? I bet the failure rate of hedge funds which employ non trend following strategies is a lot higher than trend following funds. Cant prove it unfortunately...but nor can you...just wanted to state the fact that the failure rate is of course higher than a mutual fund or government entity ;-) 2) I would not place any money on a no-name trend following fund that has been around for just a year but there is a half dozen guys out there I would kiss their feet if they let me invest with them so would every endowment fund, fund of fund, municipal entity....if they were only open to new investments 3) buy sell hope? So they hope the trend continues, whats wrong with that, empirically its a sure fire way to make the biggest bucks in a trending environment, during the other times it comes down to your entries, the stops, how you play the range bound environment. So, what do you do? You tell me you have a sure fire way to make money, no risk involved? Hmm, you found the holy grail. 4) So because 90% who attempt trading fail that means you should not trade? If you know of some high caliber hedge fund managers such as SAC or the like would you not want to get in. So would I with the top trend following funds. So, what exactly is your point? I did not claim this is the only way to make money, I claim that those who kept their investments even in 30-40% drawdown periods made a handsome gain over the past 10 years more than 90% of hedge funds can show.
like i said it only works in hindsight. you dont know whether these same funds will blow up in the next decade. in fact, chances are they will since they have done so well in the past and in the long run every single strategy reverts to its mean.
How did I know you were the thread starter here. OH MY GOD !!!!!!! THESES TWO TREND FOLLOWING FUNDS ARE DOWN BETWEEN 1 AND 3 % !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! ITS ARMAGEDDON !!!!!!!!!!!!!!! HOW WILL THEY RECOVER FROM SUCH HUGE LOSSES!!!!! TREND FOLLOWING IS OVER AFTER BEING THE BEST PERFORMERS IN 2008!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Give it a rest Surf.