"never said dunn or henry suck. they are great traders and have made fortunes over the years. however, their strategies ( at least the ones the public know ) are fatally flawed " Surf this makes no sense. Please think before posting.
EPrado Registered: Oct 2005 Posts: 1317 04-22-09 07:14 PM -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Quote from marketsurfer: take a look at it since 2005 and get back to me. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Here ar Dunn's returns from 2005 until today. 2005 -16.41 2006 3.08 2007 7.60 2008 51.45 2009 .81 Anything else you want to know ? According to my math I think they are above water. Don't let the door hit you in the ass on the way out of this thread. Well ?
You are probably talking about JWH, yes they made it back to break even: http://www.jwh.com/mrr.asp?fid=2 http://www.jwh.com/mrr.asp?fid=10 Now tell me how Henry's (one of the worst trendfollowing trackrecords out there) 10 year return compares to "buy/sell and hold". You always claim that trendfollowing return/drawdown figures "only" match simple buy and hold figures. JWH Global Analytics has a 14.02% annualized ROR over the last 11 years (net of 3/20% in fees) with a worst month to month DD of -30%. That clearly beats any other asset class for the same period. It's a good thing Michael Covel collected and documented a bunch of big trendfollowing funds historic performance records: http://www.turtletrader.com/tpp.html I beg you. Go through them. I hear you say survivorship bias? Fine, then find me (big) funds that didn't recover from their supposed horrific 2005 drawdowns. You can't. Transtrend's worst DD is -9% since 1995. Winton -25% since 1997. MAN AHL -17.9% since 1996. MAN AHL "Worst duration in drawdown" (time to recover): 3 months, since 1996. THREE FREAKING MONTHS! Compares to 49 months for MSCI world equities and 6 months for Lehman Aggregate Bond Index. Get the picture? Surf, once and for all: You don't know jackshit about trendfollowing funds, their performance, their trading strategies, their drawdowns. The little information you have is outdated and spotty at best. You pick up half truths, twist the facts and present your own opinion and personal dislike as the ultima ratio. Do us all a favor and stop spreading false information about something you don't understand nor keep up to date with.
yeah, looks like he just broke even in 2008 from the 2005 debacle. those investors who got with him in 2005 or 2004--wonder how many stuck it out, and how many lost their shirts by reedeming? that's all that really matters. if JWH is any clue, tons pulled money out after 2005--2.5 billion AUM down to 500 million now..... thats a lot of lost money.
If I didn't knock you out with Dunn's numbers, Makloda finished you off. Stay down for the count. Go back to posting threads about imaginary buy and sell signals your team gets.
Are a fucking idiot ? Broke even. If -17% is a debacle what is + 52% ? You are beyond embarassing . Dunn's clinetele has been with him for the long haul. The guy is very picky when choosing whose money to manage. I am sure they are all thrilled with being with him. JWH is one fund. Yes they had big drawdowns and they might be the most volatile of the TF's. Their AUM is actually 200 mil. Try and get fact right once in a while. The real losers in their "debacle" was Merrill Lynch. They pulled out 600 mil in a month. That was the absolute bottom of JWH's drawdown. I wonder if they use the same decision making strategies as you Surf.
you have some points, Makloda. however, i disagree about the strategy having edge. plus, as you know, funds simply stop reporting when they have bad times generally, therefore finding info on funds who didn't make it is next to impossible-- surf
man, his size shrunk dramatically. i am surprised he can maintain any kind of infrastructure going to 200 mm from billions. yeah, looks like ML made a huge mistake pulling out--but just like trend following--hindsight is 20/20
BS excuse. If a $1bln AUM trendfollowing fund had a catastrophic drawdown it would be all over Bloomberg and you know it. Surf, you're entitled to your own opinion as a strategy "having an edge or not" but unfortunately all the evidence points against your hypothesis. Before posting your opinion again every couple months in a new thread bringing up the same old discussion every time, next time please find some evidence (research publication, historic track record, backtest simulation... something of substance other than your personal bias).