Hey everyone im all the way in New Zealand, I have recently started trading using the "turtle method" of buying breakouts over a 60 day period (Mentioned in Curtis Faiths book Way Of The Turtle") I scan my charts using a 3month/Daily time frame Im trading equitys on the New Zealand Exchange (i know a very small exchange not even ranked size wise in the worlds top 25 exchanges) I am having alot of success in the short term on paper, but tend to hold on to winners too long and turn a 7% gain into a 2% gain or sell too early during a slight pull back and then it continues to run up. Was just curious to see where some of you trend followers sell? Is it once you have made a certain percentage? Is it once the Price action crosses through a moving average? Is it when the stock closes through a certain moving average? Is it when the stock retraces back to the entry price?? Im just struggling on this side of the trade. What do some of you pro's do? Cheers Benji
Why not 57 or 52 or 63 days? Have you backtested the method? It doesn't sound like something that could work. If you can trend-follow it doesn't matter when you enter but when you exit. Anyone offering you an entry method is fooling you because the problem of trend-following is the exit and that is an unsolved problem .
Hey Basha, Thanks for your reply mate, I use 60 day and 20 day time frames (3month\1month) and buy into higher highs for that time.No particular reason why I havent tried any other time frames. I have back tested through our current market conditions and found this system so far to be highly reliable.I am just starting out in live trading (3months) now so I still have alot to learn (the reason im on this site) . But as to your response regarding "entry" signals - no where in my post have I asked for entry signals, I was simply asking fellow traders what they use as "sell" signals once in a trade using some kind of trend following method. Cheers benji
...and I said, if you read my post carefully, that the entry part is the easy one but the exit part is difficult. What type of exit do you use and if the backtest is so good and the system highly reliable why are you asking for help with the exits? Why don't you just use the exits of the backtest? Maybe something I miss?
AHH yes i see what you mean, i have foolishily backtested my method with entrys only, my back testing never took into consideration an exit strategy. Thank you for bringing this to light and my apologies for being so arrogant. Back to the drawing board i go
Posters with multiple entries are always problematic. http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=275960&perpage=6&pagenumber=1
================= Hi Huskee-Ben; Yes. Moving averages like 50 dma + 200dma help/discretion ,;;%% study help. Seven % gain sounds too small[trend following]; but congrats,Huskee,, its a whole lot better than a loss. I like 50 days/dma [60 days is fine]more so than 2o days or 20 day moving average-lots less comission, slippage. Its doable, but harder than it looks.7 -10 years study helps a lot Wisdom is profitable to direct.
Try a MACD crossover. Most folks like to hold on to their stocks for the longest time so a lagging indicator like the MACD may work. You can also try a 9 day volume high. Thats also a common sell signal. You can also use a parabolic SAR breakdown or a perfected Demark sell countdown at 13, 8 or 5. There are a lot of different techniques. Use at your own risk. I don't use any of these which is why they are posted.