My preferred question would be "does trend following work on stocks where the fundamentals, breaking news-flow, and sentiment are all pointing in the same direction as well?" Surely shorting a confirmed downtrend with bad fundamentals, negative newsflow, and complacent or bullish sentiment is a better odds play than just shorting every breakout to the downside.
What kind of psychosis is it when someone constantly sneaks into a website they have been banned from more that "20" times? What would you can someone that is a BBF of Bernie Madoff?
Good pints but I don't think your premise is not correct. Stany tests I have seen indicate that stocks that odds of a reversal order more likely than a continuation after a stick has been beat down. I think even the chef will agree as his charts show him buying near lows.
Some more interesting content: 1. An audio presentation from a Chair founded by trend follower David Harding: http://www.abc.net.au/rn/scienceshow/stories/2010/3044567.htm 2. A recent article (PDF) on Salem Abraham: http://www.michaelcovel.com/2010/10/26/salem-abraham-the-best-little-hedge-fund-in-texas/
Michael, A thought: You should focus more on the performance of various trend following trading strategies through the years and less on the performance of a select group of managers. I think it would clarify your point and strengthen your argument. Regards.