Trend Following Research

Discussion in 'Technical Analysis' started by Trend Following, Aug 28, 2010.

  1. It is and has always been easier and more profitable to trade a solid system than teach. No one in their right mind would ever or could ever successfully argue against that point.

    I never taught as a prime revenue generator, I taught to collectively enhance my students as well as my own trading skills.
    I haven't taught in almost a year.

    Let's get back on track. Let's sit back and relax while Michael posts more white papers.
     
    #31     Aug 30, 2010
  2. Vertunyc

    Vertunyc

    You should tell tony Robbins that it's more profitable to trade than to teach. That's a moronic statement.
     
    #32     Aug 31, 2010
  3. Vertunyc

    Vertunyc

    really??? the below is from ET fraud buster TraderXZones, put up or shut up:

    <b>There are a number of tracking sites and brokers who will track your work independently.

    http://www.strategyrunner.com/Content/index.php
    http://www.striker.com/ (just set up an account and they will monitor your results
    http://www.Timertrac.com.
    http://www.robbinstrading.com/worldcup/

    Seems like there are another 5-10 bouncing around. These take the performance claims out of your hand, and your trades are audited by someone else, and performance results are available for all to see.

    Or did you just ask a rhetorical question, because you might not like what would happen if a year's worth of your own trades were actually verified by others?

    Place your own calls here, in real time for 2 weeks. Surely your keyboard still works. Is there any reason NOT to prove, instead of making prospects listen to unprovable things like "33 ETers!" "Talk to my anonymous clients!"

    It is called "sunlight." It exposes things for what they are. Clear for all to see. But of course, you might prefer to think of a half dozen reasons not to.

    Now that you asked, are you going to give your many claimed ET trader wannabes the evidence that you make money within good risk parameters & with good expectancy, or will you go silent while unknown aliases rise again to defend you again? </b>
     
    #33     Aug 31, 2010
  4. The moronic statement is that you think Tony Robbins teaches trading.

    I was wondering what your next alias would be surf . . . I'm thinking at some point in the near future you will be personally responsible for Baron changing the rules here on ET to keep narcissistic sociopaths like you, that have been banned, permanently off this site.

    Why don't you start you own site . . . oh . . . forgot . . . you aren't that smart.
     
    #34     Aug 31, 2010
  5. If you want proof . . . stop on over to "mi cassa".

    I'll invite some of my farmer buddies/neighbors and we can all sit around the burn ring and discuss all of the hedging and speculation opportunites we all took advantage of. You can tell all of these big strapping guys what idiots they are.

    That's a goodboy, roll over . . . lick your balls.
     
    #35     Aug 31, 2010
  6. Vertunyc

    Vertunyc

    ok, burn rings are cool, but I think I will avoid getting my a$$ kicked by billy bob thorton types.

    As someone stated previously, anecdotal proof just doesn't cut it--- but you know that, professor logic.

    I prefer the type of evidence as stated in the wise words of traderXzones listed previously--- think about it--- all that can do is help your cause, you should take advantage of the opportunity presented. BIG things could arise if your claims pan out.....

    :D :D
     
    #36     Aug 31, 2010
  7. Vertunyc

    Vertunyc



    Those are not academic white papers. They are marketing pieces made in the guise of research. They clearly only promote the "book" and strategy of the funds who sponsored them. sorry to say but they hold very little if any weight.:confused:

    here is a solid place to start if you are sincerely interested in teh subject:
    http://www.dailyspeculations.com/vic/trend_following.html

    Why I Don't Believe in Trends

    I am often asked why I don&#65533;t believe in trends despite the great profits of some selected trend followers. The main reason is that standard measures in statistics like the serial correlation coefficient or runs or Goodman tests for m dependent time series, are designed to test trends. I have not found many market series that show consistent departures from randomness on such tests. Nor more importantly, have I ever found a series that looks like it has a trend, whether it be a moving average or lagged momentum type, that doesn&#65533;t show some serious evidence for non-randomness as measured by the above mentioned tests.

    More terribly, the human mind is very good and capable of finding order in chaos and randomness. And what looks like order and trend is often completely consistent with the above.

    Two main points that lead to these optical illusions are the fact that the variance of the sum of n random components is n times the variance of a given random component. So as you get further along in time from the starting point of a random series, the movements away from the beginning seem to be very big and trendy, albeit strictly consistent with randomness. (e.g. see chart below, which is a simulated price process where returns are independently normally distributed with mean 0 and standard deviation of 1).

    The second main area of deriving order from chance is the human mind's ability to make multiple comparisons. When it looks at a series, it is very good at finding a million stopping and starting points which taken in isolation do indeed show local non-random trends. However, with all these stopping and starting points, it's bound to happen that the straight line between the two points will seem to "explain".

    I am well aware that some markets do show trends (in retrospect), and allow back tested systems to work. But merely because it worked back tested, why should the markets be so kind as to allow those who can draw a straight line between two points to make money in the future. Mr. Bacon would argue against it in the field of horse racing. Presumably the wisdom of the market is at least equal to the deceptive practices of the trainers and horsemen.

    Well then, how do I explain the great results of the selected trend followers compared to my own? Those results that the great promoters of systems, seminars and books hold up to my discredit and shame. Well , more power to them. I guess I will always be scratching the back of such well to dos

    http://www.dailyspeculations.com/vic/trend_following.html
     
    #37     Aug 31, 2010
  8. Just to aquaint you with modern day farming, this straping farm boys almost all have Master's degrees. Brain over brawn works you know. Most of the equipment they use in farming now is more technologically advanced than the newest luxury cars and cost 3 to 4 times as much.

    When it comes to paying for this equipment they need stuff that works or they get POed. To them I'm one of the good guys. Their proof is in the success of the application.

    I could care less whether you believe it has value or not . . . they do and they are a whole lot bigger, meaner, smarter and closer than you are. I don't need anything bigger . . . I'm fine, thanks for asking.
     
    #38     Aug 31, 2010
  9. FOS factor 9 Scotty! :D
     
    #39     Sep 1, 2010
  10. Vertunyc

    Vertunyc


    Whatever.

    Please stay away from threads from serious market researchers and traders.

    Start your own thread pumping your stuff, stop ruining solid threads by anyone you think is Market Surfer and or has a following to influence.

    Hearing fanciful tales about one tick trends, anecdotal evidence, autoannotated charts, and such puts readers to sleep and drives them away from the thread. Talk about such things on your own thread and in 750.00 pamphlets/ there is no interest in serious discussions.

    thank you
     
    #40     Sep 1, 2010