Trend following is generally automated. Harder? I would first ask to see all of the legendary mean reversion traders! Simons? I will let someone else speculate...
The profitability of "Trend Following", like any method is based on it's ability to objectively and consistently define itself, its environment, its trade set ups, exits and stops. I'm not aware of any "Trend Following" method, past or present, other than mine, that can make that distinction. Even your current material you've posted shows that. The last 15 years of my life has been devoted to defining the "trend" of a chart but over and above that I've taken it a step further by learning how to profit from every oscillation that is created inside every trend. I'm on your side . . . sort of.
Are you in the league of these guys? 1, 2, 3, etc.? I am not, but at least I am not delusional about baselines for comparison. Not saying you have to manage client money, but those guys have been at trend following a long time -- with no slow down. You are anon ETer as of now barking claims.
It amazes me that individuals like yourself solely measure a person in this industry by their ability to manage other people money and not by the cut of their own cloth or the validity of the information they possess. You even summarily dismiss the information presented to you before you have the opportunity to verify it. I am anything but delusional. I am smart enough to compare apples to apples. I compare systems, methods and strategies not dollars. No, I am not in their league. I do not need to manage other people's money earn a seven or eight figure income . . . they do. The length of time someone is at a particular trade doesn't always mean they are the best in their field. An old friend had quadruple bypass surgery at the Cleveland Clinic a couple months ago and was told by one of the top cardiologists in his field that his chances with a new technique developed by a young surgeon was fool hearty. The old highly regarded surgeon said he had zero chance of survival with or without surgery. My friend did his research and put his faith and his life in the young surgeon's hand and came through the surgery with flying colors. He is back home playing 18 holes golf this weekend. None of those individuals you mentioned actively research their own environments. They rely on analysts who are not suppose to think for themselves , they are given specific parameters to do their work. What they actively do is invest other people's money and look for more money to draw commissions. That is what they are good at. You seem to have an utter disdain for not only people on ET but specifically anyone whose opinion is different than yours. That is sad because you have no clue who exactly comes in here. It's anyones guess why you think anyone that would come in here couldn't have developed something groundbreaking or unique. That being the case, if you think we are all ignoramuses on this site . . . why bother slumming and coming in here?? Is trolling for new meat for your products that essential to you?
No clue have you. No research? Trend followers hire analysts? My critique was of your statements. They are plenty of smart people in here.
That's what I'm asking: http://www.automated-trading-system.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/03/turtles_since_1970_350.png
Do you do your own technical analytic research? You can't critique something you can't comprehend. Over the past 25 years I've had the luxury of picking the brains of some of the top fund managers and traders in the world so I would say I have a rather large clue. My curiosity and some of my early contacts are partially why I decided to start researching the market on my own 15 years ago. When the turtles did what they did years ago many said they were fools. If you think someone couldn't have come up with something better than what they developed since, then you are more handicapped than arrogant. I don't need my name in the spotlight or to manage hundreds of millions of dollars to consider myself a success, evidently you do. Good luck with your books, seminars, systems, more systems, classes, consulting and movie to make your 7+ figure income. All I need is my trading.
1st . . . nice way to avoid answering my question. I am William Schamp. That is something everyone already knows. On to your link . . . interesting that you posted something from Paul Mulvaney. I presented a paper at the London College of Business in 2001 and while in London I attended a dinner that Mr. Mulnvaney was speaking. I had the pleasure of speaking to him after the dinner and it was refreshing to learn that we had so much in common: Long term focus to our systems Attention to position sizing Focus on diversification Need of solid stop-loss procedures Essential money management Elimination of emotions in trading or investment decisions I solidified many of my current opinions after that evening. I have always been a fan of his mindset though not the results of his fund. He's only profitable on about 13% of his trades. That is a number I do not personally find acceptable. The fund is profitable so on that note alone, it is successful. I can make money on every chart I trade but I refuse to accept anything less than a 40% win rate. That is a personal figure I stick to only. The foundation of everything I do is grounded and founded in "Trend Following". The only difference is that I specifically and objectively define the term "trend" as it pertains to the exact non-variable chart environment I trade inside. Once I have the chart environment defined and blueprinted I can extract profit based on the lowest risk, most conservative oscillation outcomes that particular chart produces. Nothing hard about that and nothing hard to validate . . . at least for the average person.