Trend Following: Profitable Reality or an Illusion doomed to Failure?

Discussion in 'Trading' started by AFJ Garner, Apr 2, 2013.

  1. #31     Apr 26, 2013
  2. MrN

    MrN

    I would say a better concept than "price trend" is to research if certain conditions tend to create a positive or negative drift in a market. Just a small incremental improvement in daily drift over random (or even worse fighting long term drift) can do wonders for the success of a long term system or approach.


    There is plenty of academic literature on this subject for stocks, currencies, and futures contracts that can make a good starting point. If conditions for positive or negative drift can be established it it is much easier to find trend based models that are effective. Another approach I use is to fade tend-based signals when they are contrary to a market drift that is determined by other criteria. This is another way to use a trend approach that is counter-intuitive.
    Just tossing together various MA combinations and the like is not a formula for creating much success.
     
    #32     Apr 26, 2013