Trend Following Is Dead

Discussion in 'Wall St. News' started by marketsurfer, Jul 22, 2013.

  1. The threads on trend following I've seen on ET, including Covel's own, focus on diversified trend followers. The importance of a brief period of performance of a long-only, SPY-only product is... :confused:
     
    #31     Jul 26, 2013
  2. Maverick74

    Maverick74

    This is NOT those threads. This is a different thread. I simply pointed to an ETF that "uses" a trend following approach. It uses the 200 day avg to identify the trend of the market. And stays long until that trend is violated. Once violated it moves money into fixed income. And looky looky they are up 20% ytd! Sure, we're not stupid. This is elite trader after all. We can see that this ETF will basically be long the market. But at least there is some mechanism to save investors from enduring the potential 60% drawdown in 2008 and move their money to bonds. It's pretty simple really. And as simple as it is, it's absolutely destroying 95% of hedge funds this year. That's probably the really pathetic thing about it. But if you want your honor, you can strike that piece of evidence from the record. Surf still hasn't responded to any of my other points.
     
    #32     Jul 26, 2013
  3. And he won't, Mav, he's probably ignoring the responses in the last threads where I basically told him I've done everything he claims can't be done:

    Including

    1) 25k account doubles in less than 1 year
    2) Use Trend Following to Trade Profitably (maybe the most relevant)
    3) Make better use of my time than debating a talking TV head with no programming knowledge or access to databases with clean financial records then missing about $250,000 of programming along with sacrificing a marriage built on a long distance relationship and having traded without TF for awhile I do have others but that's not that topic.

    And,
    4) This topic is lopsided because he's the OP, and will not acknowledge this is just a cock fight that only he can win.

    Thus I do not enter this ring. This thread is in a completely inappropriate forum, and should be remanded to career trader.
     
    #33     Jul 26, 2013
  4. Butterball

    Butterball

    I am talking about your claim Taylor is a "leading trendie". He's not.

    Is he running AHL, Transtrend, Winton, Bluecrest? He's never mentioned in the same sentence with them because his fund has nothing to do with them strategy-wise. Taylor has never been a mechanical, diversified trend follower. Hence he is not and has never been a "leading trendie".
     
    #34     Jul 27, 2013
  5. Maverick74

    Maverick74

    Surf, don't leave me hanging...

    :confused:
     
    #35     Jul 27, 2013
  6. Is it fair to say it was a TKO.. after 3 rounds..

    Anyone contesting this should speak now or forever hold their peace...

    :)
     
    #36     Jul 27, 2013
  7. Rod is correct--- trend following funds are a diversified approach not the S&P 500 ETF. When I say trend following is dead, I am referring to trend funds, and quoting a big name in the trend business.

    surf
     
    #37     Jul 27, 2013
  8. Price Drivers baby.
     
    #38     Jul 27, 2013
  9. Maverick74

    Maverick74

    Surf, THIS is the post I wanted you to respond to. :)
     
    #39     Jul 27, 2013

  10. No counterpoint. I'm just quoting Taylor from the article.
     
    #40     Jul 27, 2013